bayesRatings

Suns at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final PHX 98 – HOU 117
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX3127142698
HOU24442920117
Team box
PHX·HOU
39-100
field goals
45-76
5-36
3-pointers
10-18
15-19
free throws
17-19
34
rebounds
40
14
assists
25
13
turnovers
23
58
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Amen ThompsonHOU323141
Kevin DurantHOU322848
Dillon BrooksPHX312344
Jamaree BouyeaPHX181821
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU281622
Collin GillespiePHX291323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +30
PHX +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 30 · PHX 9lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 31%, HOU 69% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 7.7
Expected score
HOU 117.7 – 110.0 PHX
Expected total
227.7
SunsThe matchupRockets
+227Our fair odds−227
110.0Expected points117.7
+0.05Power rating+0.64
117.0Points / game121.7
113.7Allowed / game110.3
47.2FG%48.4
37.93P%39.9
42.9Rebounds / game49.8
13−9Season record14−5
6−4Last 108−2
Devin Booker · Jalen GreenOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Tari Eason

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair30.5%69.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+22731%————
HOUHouston Rockets−22769%————
SpreadHOU by 7.7
PHXPhoenix Suns+7.7our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.7
Over227.7our total————
Under227.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 7.7 expected
Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%
← PHX wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more61%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more45%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.7 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CSteven Adamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·HOU
Dec 1, 2025 at LAL
last game
Dec 3, 2025 vs SAC
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · right groin; strainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXIsaiah Livers · right hip; strainQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
PHX·HOU
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.64
117.0
points / game
121.7
113.7
points allowed / game
110.3
13−9
season record
14−5
8−4
home record
6−2
5−5
away record
8−3
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
47.2
FG%
48.4
37.9
3P%
39.9
42.9
rebounds / game
49.8
25.9
assists / game
25.5
16.1
turnovers / game
15.4
45.4
points in paint / game
54.1

Rating Trend

PHX · HOU · 38 days
Phoenix SunsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 8−2
Nov 24, 2025at PHXHOU 114 − 92
Mar 30, 2025at PHXHOU 148 − 109
Mar 12, 2025at HOUHOU 111 − 104
Feb 12, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 111
Mar 2, 2024at PHXHOU 118 − 109
Feb 29, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 110
Dec 27, 2023at HOUPHX 129 − 113
Dec 13, 2022at HOUHOU 111 − 97
Dec 2, 2022at PHXHOU 122 − 121

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 1, 2025at LAL125 − 108W
Nov 29, 2025vs DEN112 − 130L
Nov 28, 2025at OKC119 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025at SAC112 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025vs HOU92 − 114L
Nov 23, 2025vs SA111 − 102W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIN114 − 113W
Nov 18, 2025at POR127 − 110W
Nov 16, 2025vs ATL122 − 124L
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W
Nov 21, 2025vs DEN109 − 112L
Nov 19, 2025at CLE114 − 104W
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W