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Kings at Rockets

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final SAC 95 – HOU 121
← NBA / Dec 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC2626192495
HOU28233634121
Team box
SAC·HOU
40-97
field goals
48-91
10-34
3-pointers
5-16
5-10
free throws
20-24
32
rebounds
62
21
assists
24
13
turnovers
18
46
points in paint
78
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU3028103
Maxime RaynaudSAC322563
Malik MonkSAC302535
Kevin DurantHOU322438
Amen ThompsonHOU3720127
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU351481

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +26
SAC +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 26 · SAC 6lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 24%, HOU 76% · Updated Dec 3, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 10.5
Expected score
HOU 120.0 – 109.5 SAC
Expected total
229.5
KingsThe matchupRockets
+315Our fair odds−315
109.5Expected points120.0
−0.28Power rating+0.64
111.8Points / game121.8
122.9Allowed / game111.2
46.5FG%48.1
35.33P%40.4
39.7Rebounds / game49.2
5−16Season record13−5
2−8Last 108−2
Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah StevensOut (4 each)Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Tari Eason

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair24.1%75.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+31524%————
HOUHouston Rockets−31576%————
SpreadHOU by 10.5
SACSacramento Kings+10.5our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−10.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 10.5 expected
Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%
← SAC wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more68%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more53%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDrew Eubanksstarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·HOU
Nov 30, 2025 vs MEM
last game
Dec 1, 2025 at UTAH
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 3, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACDennis Schroder · right hip flexor; strainQuestionable
SACMalik Monk · right shoulder; sorenessProbable
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut
HOUSteven Adams · right ankle; tendinopathyQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
SAC·HOU
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.64
111.8
points / game
121.8
122.9
points allowed / game
111.2
5−16
season record
13−5
3−7
home record
5−2
2−9
away record
8−3
L3
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
8−2
46.5
FG%
48.1
35.3
3P%
40.4
39.7
rebounds / game
49.2
26.0
assists / game
25.6
13.9
turnovers / game
15.3
49.1
points in paint / game
52.8

Rating Trend

SAC · HOU · 36 days
Sacramento KingsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Mar 1, 2025at HOUSAC 113 − 103
Jan 16, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 127
Dec 3, 2024at SACSAC 120 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at SACHOU 112 − 104
Nov 6, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 97
Nov 4, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 89
Feb 8, 2023at HOUSAC 130 − 128
Feb 6, 2023at HOUSAC 140 − 120
Jan 13, 2023at SACSAC 139 − 114
Jan 11, 2023at SACSAC 135 − 115

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 30, 2025vs MEM107 − 115L
Nov 28, 2025at UTAH119 − 128L
Nov 26, 2025vs PHX100 − 112L
Nov 24, 2025vs MIN117 − 112W
Nov 22, 2025at DEN128 − 123W
Nov 20, 2025at MEM96 − 137L
Nov 19, 2025at OKC99 − 113L
Nov 16, 2025at SA110 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025at MIN110 − 124L
Nov 12, 2025vs ATL100 − 133L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W
Nov 21, 2025vs DEN109 − 112L
Nov 19, 2025at CLE114 − 104W
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W