bayesRatings

Rockets at Jazz

NBA · Monday, Dec 1 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final HOU 125 – UTAH 133
← NBA / Dec 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU32253236125
UTAH31373035133
Team box
HOU·UTAH
41-93
field goals
45-90
10-34
3-pointers
14-35
33-41
free throws
29-38
46
rebounds
50
27
assists
33
13
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU403295
Alperen SengunHOU3831814
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH372980
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH372848
Amen ThompsonHOU372383
Jusuf NurkicUTAH241892

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +21
HOU +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 21 · HOU 4lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 78%, UTAH 22% · Updated Dec 1, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 11.9
Expected score
HOU 123.8 – 111.8 UTAH
Expected total
235.6
RocketsThe matchupJazz
−358Our fair odds+358
123.8Expected points111.8
+0.64Power rating−0.91
121.6Points / game117.7
109.9Allowed / game125.4
48.4FG%45.2
41.13P%32.8
49.4Rebounds / game46.0
13−4Season record6−13
8−2Last 103−7
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon Harris
Steven AdamsOut (5 each)Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Oscar Tshiebwe
Walker Kessler

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair78.2%21.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−35878%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+35822%————
SpreadHOU by 11.9
HOUHouston Rockets−11.9our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+11.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.6
Over235.6our total————
Under235.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 11.9 expected
Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 4%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 4%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%
← HOU wins byUTAH wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more73%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more57%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more40%
Within 5 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

235.6 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·UTAH
Nov 30, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 30, 2025 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 1, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · restOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
HOU·UTAH
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
−0.91
121.6
points / game
117.7
109.9
points allowed / game
125.4
13−4
season record
6−13
5−2
home record
5−6
8−2
away record
1−7
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
3−7
48.4
FG%
45.2
41.1
3P%
32.8
49.4
rebounds / game
46.0
25.5
assists / game
29.8
15.4
turnovers / game
17.1
52.7
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

HOU · UTAH · 34 days
Houston RocketsUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 4−6
Nov 30, 2025at UTAHHOU 129 − 101
Apr 2, 2025at HOUHOU 143 − 105
Mar 27, 2025at UTAHHOU 121 − 110
Feb 22, 2025at UTAHUTAH 124 − 115
Apr 11, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 121
Mar 29, 2024at UTAHHOU 101 − 100
Mar 23, 2024at HOUHOU 147 − 119
Jan 20, 2024at HOUHOU 127 − 126
Jan 5, 2023at HOUUTAH 131 − 114
Oct 26, 2022at UTAHUTAH 109 − 101

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W
Nov 21, 2025vs DEN109 − 112L
Nov 19, 2025at CLE114 − 104W
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU101 − 129L
Nov 28, 2025vs SAC128 − 119W
Nov 24, 2025at GS117 − 134L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAL106 − 108L
Nov 21, 2025vs OKC112 − 144L
Nov 18, 2025at LAL126 − 140L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI150 − 147W
Nov 13, 2025vs ATL122 − 132L
Nov 11, 2025vs IND152 − 128W
Nov 10, 2025vs MIN113 − 120L