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Hawks at Thunder

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final ATL 129 – OKC 140
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL38362926129
OKC35354327140
Team box
ATL·OKC
46-97
field goals
53-98
25-54
3-pointers
12-32
12-17
free throws
22-23
38
rebounds
49
32
assists
27
16
turnovers
14
36
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363966
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL403045
Onyeka OkongwuATL3526146
Chet HolmgrenOKC312492
Jalen WilliamsOKC332097
Vit KrejciATL341812

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +15
ATL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 15 · ATL 10lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 14%, OKC 86% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 16.7
Expected score
OKC 126.0 – 109.3 ATL
Expected total
235.3
HawksThe matchupThunder
+619Our fair odds−619
109.3Expected points126.0
−0.14Power rating+1.48
118.8Points / game121.5
120.1Allowed / game107.2
48.3FG%49.5
36.53P%37.0
41.5Rebounds / game44.4
15−18Season record27−5
2−8Last 106−4
Eli John Ndiaye · Jalen Johnson
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola DjurisicOut (5 each)Brooks Barnhizer · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jaylin Williams · Nikola Topic
Ousmane Dieng

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · OKC chance
Our model fair13.9%86.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+61914%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−61986%————
SpreadOKC by 16.7
ATLAtlanta Hawks+16.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−16.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.3
Over235.3our total————
Under235.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 16.7 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 53 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 52 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 51 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← ATL wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more82%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more70%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more55%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.3 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·OKC
Dec 27, 2025 vs NY
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJalen Johnson · n/a; illnessOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right quad; contusionOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAjay Mitchell · left shin; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
ATL·OKC
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+1.48
118.8
points / game
121.5
120.1
points allowed / game
107.2
15−18
season record
27−5
5−11
home record
15−2
10−7
away record
12−3
L6
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
49.5
36.5
3P%
37.0
41.5
rebounds / game
44.4
31.0
assists / game
25.8
15.3
turnovers / game
12.6
52.8
points in paint / game
52.6

Rating Trend

ATL · OKC · 61 days
Atlanta HawksOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OKC 5−4
Oct 25, 2025at ATLOKC 117 − 100
Feb 28, 2025at ATLOKC 135 − 119
Oct 27, 2024at OKCOKC 128 − 104
Jan 3, 2024at ATLATL 141 − 138
Nov 6, 2023at OKCOKC 126 − 117
Jan 25, 2023at OKCATL 137 − 132
Dec 5, 2022at ATLOKC 121 − 114
Mar 30, 2022at OKCATL 136 − 118
Nov 22, 2021at ATLATL 113 − 101

ATL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W
Dec 7, 2025at UTAH131 − 101W
Dec 5, 2025vs DAL132 − 111W