bayesRatings

Hawks at Pistons

NBA · Friday, Dec 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final ATL 115 – DET 142
← NBA / Dec 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL33271936115
DET34353538142
Team box
ATL·DET
39-85
field goals
53-91
11-36
3-pointers
12-29
26-31
free throws
24-29
37
rebounds
40
28
assists
34
20
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL312220
Jalen JohnsonATL34191112
Dyson DanielsATL3418105
Isaiah StewartDET211755
Cade CunninghamDET231516
Duncan RobinsonDET211542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +35
ATL +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 35 · ATL 3lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 37%, DET 63% · Updated Dec 12, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 4.4
Expected score
DET 120.6 – 116.2 ATL
Expected total
236.8
HawksThe matchupPistons
+167Our fair odds−167
116.2Expected points120.6
−0.01Power rating+0.28
118.0Points / game118.7
116.5Allowed / game113.2
48.6FG%48.4
36.53P%35.4
41.8Rebounds / game46.8
14−11Season record19−5
5−5Last 107−3
Caleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Jacob Toppin · Kristaps Porzingis
N'Faly DanteOut (5 each)Bobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · DET chance
Our model fair37.5%62.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+16737%————
DETDetroit Pistons−16763%————
SpreadDET by 4.4
ATLAtlanta Hawks+4.4our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.8
Over236.8our total————
Under236.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.4 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more52%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more37%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.8 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.569%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·DET
Dec 6, 2025 at WSH
last game
Dec 6, 2025 vs MIL
5 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 12, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · right shoulder; surgeryOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · concussion protocolOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · left knee; sprainOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
ATL·DET
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
118.0
points / game
118.7
116.5
points allowed / game
113.2
14−11
season record
19−5
4−6
home record
11−2
10−5
away record
8−3
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
48.6
FG%
48.4
36.5
3P%
35.4
41.8
rebounds / game
46.8
30.8
assists / game
26.1
15.2
turnovers / game
16.1
53.0
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

ATL · DET · 45 days
Atlanta HawksDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Dec 1, 2025at DETDET 99 − 98
Nov 18, 2025at ATLDET 120 − 112
Feb 23, 2025at ATLDET 148 − 143
Feb 3, 2025at DETATL 132 − 130
Jan 22, 2025at ATLDET 114 − 104
Nov 8, 2024at DETDET 122 − 121
Apr 3, 2024at ATLATL 121 − 113
Dec 18, 2023at ATLATL 130 − 124
Nov 14, 2023at DETATL 126 − 120
Mar 21, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 107

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W
Nov 22, 2025at NO115 − 98W
Nov 20, 2025at SA126 − 135L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W
Dec 3, 2025at MIL109 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025vs ATL99 − 98W
Nov 29, 2025at MIA138 − 135W
Nov 28, 2025vs ORL109 − 112L
Nov 26, 2025at BOS114 − 117L
Nov 24, 2025at IND122 − 117W
Nov 22, 2025at MIL129 − 116W
Nov 18, 2025at ATL120 − 112W