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Hawks at Wizards

NBA · Saturday, Dec 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final ATL 131 – WSH 116
← NBA / Dec 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL35352734131
WSH28273823116
Team box
ATL·WSH
52-98
field goals
41-80
13-39
3-pointers
17-38
14-14
free throws
17-19
45
rebounds
26
36
assists
29
15
turnovers
20
70
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL39301212
CJ McCollumWSH362803
Onyeka OkongwuATL362196
Tristan VukcevicWSH271854
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL321744
Justin ChampagnieWSH321653

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +20
ATL +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 6 · ATL 20lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 76%, WSH 24% · Updated Dec 6, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 11.4
Expected score
ATL 126.0 – 114.5 WSH
Expected total
240.5
HawksThe matchupWizards
−325Our fair odds+325
126.0Expected points114.5
+0.04Power rating−1.41
117.5Points / game112.2
116.5Allowed / game128.1
48.4FG%46.0
36.63P%36.2
41.6Rebounds / game43.2
13−11Season record3−18
4−6Last 102−8
Caleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Jacob Toppin · Kristaps Porzingis
N'Faly DanteOut (5 each)Alex Sarr · Bilal Coulibaly
Corey Kispert · Khris Middleton
Sharife Cooper

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair76.5%23.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−32576%————
WSHWashington Wizards+32524%————
SpreadATL by 11.4
ATLAtlanta Hawks−11.4our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+11.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.5
Over240.5our total————
Under240.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 11.4 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 4%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 4%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more72%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more56%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.5 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.548%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBub Carringtonstarted
FMarvin Bagley IIIstarted
FJustin Champagniestarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Dec 5, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Dec 4, 2025 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 6, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · right shoulder; sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · return to competition reconditioningOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · concussion protocolOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right adductor; strainOut
WSHBilal Coulibaly · right oblique; strainOut
WSHCorey Kispert · right thumb; distal phalanx fractureOut
WSHKhris Middleton · right knee; sorenessOut
WSHSharife Cooper · right calf; strainOut
WSHTre Johnson · left hip flexor; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−1.41
117.5
points / game
112.2
116.5
points allowed / game
128.1
13−11
season record
3−18
4−6
home record
2−7
9−5
away record
1−11
L3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
48.4
FG%
46.0
36.6
3P%
36.2
41.6
rebounds / game
43.2
30.6
assists / game
25.4
15.2
turnovers / game
16.4
52.3
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 39 days
Atlanta HawksWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Nov 25, 2025at WSHWSH 132 − 113
Feb 8, 2025at WSHATL 125 − 111
Nov 15, 2024at ATLATL 129 − 117
Oct 30, 2024at WSHWSH 133 − 120
Oct 28, 2024at ATLWSH 121 − 119
Jan 13, 2024at ATLWSH 127 − 99
Dec 31, 2023at WSHATL 130 − 126
Nov 25, 2023at WSHATL 136 − 108
Nov 1, 2023at ATLATL 130 − 121
Apr 5, 2023at ATLATL 134 − 116

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W
Nov 22, 2025at NO115 − 98W
Nov 20, 2025at SA126 − 135L
Nov 18, 2025vs DET112 − 120L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 4, 2025vs BOS101 − 146L
Dec 2, 2025at PHI102 − 121L
Dec 1, 2025vs MIL129 − 126W
Nov 28, 2025at IND86 − 119L
Nov 25, 2025vs ATL132 − 113W
Nov 22, 2025at CHI120 − 121L
Nov 21, 2025at TOR110 − 140L
Nov 19, 2025at MIN109 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs BKN106 − 129L
Nov 12, 2025at HOU112 − 135L