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Nuggets at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final DEN 134 – ATL 133
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN23314040134
ATL41323030133
Team box
DEN·ATL
47-89
field goals
49-95
16-37
3-pointers
20-46
24-30
free throws
15-16
42
rebounds
45
28
assists
35
12
turnovers
14
54
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN364098
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL343051
Kristaps PorzingisATL202521
Jamal MurrayDEN3823512
Jalen JohnsonATL38211816
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN271760

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +23
DEN +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 23 · DEN 11lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 58%, ATL 42% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 2.6
Expected score
DEN 122.1 – 119.5 ATL
Expected total
241.6
NuggetsThe matchupHawks
−136Our fair odds+136
122.1Expected points119.5
+0.59Power rating+0.04
125.1Points / game116.8
116.0Allowed / game115.7
51.4FG%48.2
39.63P%36.3
45.4Rebounds / game41.5
15−6Season record13−10
6−4Last 105−5
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Caleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Jacob Toppin · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−13658%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+13642%————
SpreadDEN by 2.6
DENDenver Nuggets−2.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 241.6
Over241.6our total————
Under241.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 2.6 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins byATL wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more47%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more32%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.6 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.568%
Total over 241.549%
Total over 251.531%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·ATL
Dec 3, 2025 at IND
last game
Dec 3, 2025 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENSpencer Jones · right knee; contusionQuestionable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · right shoulder; sprainOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · concussion protocolOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLJalen Johnson · right calf; tightnessQuestionable
ATLKristaps Porzingis · return to competition reconditioningQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
DEN·ATL
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
125.1
points / game
116.8
116.0
points allowed / game
115.7
15−6
season record
13−10
6−4
home record
4−5
9−2
away record
9−5
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
51.4
FG%
48.2
39.6
3P%
36.3
45.4
rebounds / game
41.5
29.5
assists / game
30.4
13.8
turnovers / game
15.3
53.1
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

DEN · ATL · 38 days
Denver NuggetsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ATL 1−7
Jan 1, 2025at DENDEN 139 − 120
Dec 8, 2024at ATLDEN 141 − 111
Apr 6, 2024at DENDEN 142 − 110
Dec 11, 2023at ATLDEN 129 − 122
Feb 4, 2023at DENDEN 128 − 108
Dec 2, 2022at ATLATL 117 − 109
Dec 17, 2021at ATLDEN 133 − 115
Nov 12, 2021at DENDEN 105 − 96

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W
Nov 22, 2025at NO115 − 98W
Nov 20, 2025at SA126 − 135L
Nov 18, 2025vs DET112 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025at PHX124 − 122W