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Nuggets at Pacers

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final DEN 135 – IND 120
← NBA / Dec 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN33393033135
IND28203141120
Team box
DEN·IND
49-83
field goals
42-81
17-28
3-pointers
13-28
20-26
free throws
23-29
38
rebounds
38
23
assists
24
11
turnovers
12
52
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN365264
Nikola JokicDEN3524813
Pascal SiakamIND342334
Andrew NembhardIND281637
Bennedict MathurinIND281572
T.J. McConnellIND171416

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +29
DEN +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 5 · DEN 29lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 58%, IND 42% · Updated Dec 3, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 2.9
Expected score
DEN 119.5 – 116.6 IND
Expected total
236.2
NuggetsThe matchupPacers
−138Our fair odds+138
119.5Expected points116.6
+0.59Power rating+0.02
124.6Points / game110.2
115.8Allowed / game119.4
51.0FG%42.7
38.53P%31.7
45.8Rebounds / game44.8
14−6Season record4−17
6−4Last 103−7
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Aaron Nesmith · Kam Jones
Obi Toppin · Quenton Jackson
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · IND chance
Our model fair57.9%42.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−13858%————
INDIndiana Pacers+13842%————
SpreadDEN by 2.9
DENDenver Nuggets−2.9our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.2
Over236.2our total————
Under236.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 2.9 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins byIND wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more48%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more33%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.2 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·IND
Dec 1, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 1, 2025 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 2, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENJamal Murray · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DENNikola Jokic · left wrist; sprainProbable
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee mcl; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress reactionOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
DEN·IND
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
124.6
points / game
110.2
115.8
points allowed / game
119.4
14−6
season record
4−17
6−4
home record
4−7
8−2
away record
0−10
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
51.0
FG%
42.7
38.5
3P%
31.7
45.8
rebounds / game
44.8
29.9
assists / game
23.3
13.9
turnovers / game
14.5
53.2
points in paint / game
46.3

Rating Trend

DEN · IND · 36 days
Denver NuggetsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 1−8
Nov 8, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 100
Apr 6, 2025at DENIND 125 − 120
Feb 24, 2025at INDDEN 125 − 116
Jan 23, 2024at INDDEN 114 − 109
Jan 14, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 109
Jan 20, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 111
Nov 9, 2022at INDDEN 122 − 119
Mar 30, 2022at INDDEN 125 − 118
Nov 10, 2021at DENDEN 101 − 98

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W
Nov 28, 2025vs WSH119 − 86W
Nov 26, 2025at TOR95 − 97L
Nov 24, 2025vs DET117 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at CLE109 − 120L
Nov 19, 2025vs CHA127 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025at DET112 − 127L
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR111 − 129L
Nov 13, 2025at PHX98 − 133L