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Pacers at Raptors

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final IND 95 – TOR 97
← NBA / Nov 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND2524212595
TOR2129262197
Team box
IND·TOR
35-78
field goals
35-90
11-33
3-pointers
5-26
14-23
free throws
22-27
43
rebounds
48
20
assists
18
18
turnovers
13
40
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR382680
Scottie BarnesTOR3624104
T.J. McConnellIND241676
Immanuel QuickleyTOR351556
Bennedict MathurinIND341533
Jarace WalkerIND271392

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +13
IND +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 13 · IND 11lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 47%, TOR 53% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
TOR by 1.4
Expected score
TOR 117.0 – 115.5 IND
Expected total
232.5
PacersThe matchupRaptors
+113Our fair odds−113
115.5Expected points117.0
+0.03Power rating−0.09
110.5Points / game120.4
122.8Allowed / game113.4
41.5FG%50.3
31.23P%37.8
45.2Rebounds / game42.1
2−15Season record13−5
1−9Last 109−1
Aaron Nesmith · Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOutRJ Barrett

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+11347%————
TORToronto Raptors−11353%————
SpreadTOR by 1.4
INDIndiana Pacers+1.4our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 1.4 expected
Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%
← IND wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more44%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more30%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·TOR
Nov 24, 2025 vs DET
last game
Nov 24, 2025 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 25, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee mcl; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Toronto Raptors
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
IND·TOR
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
110.5
points / game
120.4
122.8
points allowed / game
113.4
2−15
season record
13−5
2−6
home record
6−2
0−9
away record
7−3
L2
streak
W8
1−9
last 10
9−1
41.5
FG%
50.3
31.2
3P%
37.8
45.2
rebounds / game
42.1
23.5
assists / game
30.3
14.4
turnovers / game
14.1
45.9
points in paint / game
54.2

Rating Trend

IND · TOR · 30 days
Indiana PacersToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Nov 15, 2025at INDTOR 129 − 111
Feb 26, 2025at INDIND 111 − 91
Dec 3, 2024at TORTOR 122 − 111
Nov 18, 2024at TORTOR 130 − 119
Apr 9, 2024at TORIND 140 − 123
Feb 26, 2024at INDTOR 130 − 122
Feb 14, 2024at TORIND 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at INDTOR 132 − 131
Mar 22, 2023at TORIND 118 − 114
Jan 2, 2023at INDIND 122 − 114

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Nov 24, 2025vs DET117 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at CLE109 − 120L
Nov 19, 2025vs CHA127 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025at DET112 − 127L
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR111 − 129L
Nov 13, 2025at PHX98 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025at UTAH128 − 152L
Nov 9, 2025at GS83 − 114L
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L

TOR · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Nov 24, 2025vs CLE110 − 99W
Nov 23, 2025vs BKN119 − 109W
Nov 21, 2025vs WSH140 − 110W
Nov 19, 2025at PHI121 − 112W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHA110 − 108W
Nov 15, 2025at IND129 − 111W
Nov 13, 2025at CLE126 − 113W
Nov 11, 2025at BKN119 − 109W
Nov 8, 2025at PHI120 − 130L
Nov 7, 2025at ATL109 − 97W