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Hawks at Pistons

NBA · Monday, Dec 1 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final ATL 98 – DET 99
← NBA / Dec 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL2722193098
DET2525242599
Team box
ATL·DET
38-89
field goals
38-86
14-40
3-pointers
5-26
8-11
free throws
18-24
34
rebounds
60
27
assists
18
15
turnovers
23
42
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3829137
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL352631
Jalen DurenDET3221110
Onyeka OkongwuATL362064
Cade CunninghamDET381888
Ronald Holland IIDET171760

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +7
ATL +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 7 · ATL 5lead changes: 27

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 39%, DET 61% · Updated Dec 1, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 4.0
Expected score
DET 120.0 – 116.0 ATL
Expected total
235.9
HawksThe matchupPistons
+159Our fair odds−159
116.0Expected points120.0
+0.05Power rating+0.27
118.9Points / game119.8
116.6Allowed / game114.0
48.9FG%49.1
36.63P%35.9
42.0Rebounds / game46.4
13−8Season record16−4
7−3Last 108−2
Eli John Ndiaye · Jacob Toppin
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola DjurisicOut (5 each)Bobi Klintman · Isaac Jones
Marcus Sasser · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · DET chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+15939%————
DETDetroit Pistons−15961%————
SpreadDET by 4.0
ATLAtlanta Hawks+4our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.9
Over235.9our total————
Under235.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.0 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%
← ATL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more51%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more36%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.9 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.550%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·DET
Nov 30, 2025 at PHI
last game
Nov 29, 2025 at MIA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 1, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · right shoulder; sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · left ankle; sprainOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETMarcus Sasser · return to competition reconditioningOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETDuncan Robinson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DETCaris LeVert · right knee; sorenessProbable
DETJalen Duren · left lower leg; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
ATL·DET
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
118.9
points / game
119.8
116.6
points allowed / game
114.0
13−8
season record
16−4
4−4
home record
8−2
9−4
away record
8−2
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
8−2
48.9
FG%
49.1
36.6
3P%
35.9
42.0
rebounds / game
46.4
31.0
assists / game
26.4
15.3
turnovers / game
15.9
53.8
points in paint / game
58.4

Rating Trend

ATL · DET · 34 days
Atlanta HawksDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Nov 18, 2025at ATLDET 120 − 112
Feb 23, 2025at ATLDET 148 − 143
Feb 3, 2025at DETATL 132 − 130
Jan 22, 2025at ATLDET 114 − 104
Nov 8, 2024at DETDET 122 − 121
Apr 3, 2024at ATLATL 121 − 113
Dec 18, 2023at ATLATL 130 − 124
Nov 14, 2023at DETATL 126 − 120
Mar 21, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 107
Dec 23, 2022at ATLATL 130 − 105

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W
Nov 22, 2025at NO115 − 98W
Nov 20, 2025at SA126 − 135L
Nov 18, 2025vs DET112 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025at PHX124 − 122W
Nov 13, 2025at UTAH132 − 122W
Nov 12, 2025at SAC133 − 100W

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025at MIA138 − 135W
Nov 28, 2025vs ORL109 − 112L
Nov 26, 2025at BOS114 − 117L
Nov 24, 2025at IND122 − 117W
Nov 22, 2025at MIL129 − 116W
Nov 18, 2025at ATL120 − 112W
Nov 17, 2025vs IND127 − 112W
Nov 14, 2025vs PHI114 − 105W
Nov 12, 2025vs CHI124 − 113W
Nov 10, 2025vs WSH137 − 135W