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Bucks at Wizards

NBA · Monday, Dec 1 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final MIL 126 – WSH 129
← NBA / Dec 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL34322832126
WSH28303338129
Team box
MIL·WSH
46-84
field goals
53-102
21-38
3-pointers
13-36
13-21
free throws
10-15
35
rebounds
41
29
assists
29
17
turnovers
10
34
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL313045
CJ McCollumWSH362845
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL322674
Marvin Bagley IIIWSH292281
Cam WhitmoreWSH191751
Tristan VukcevicWSH201622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +16
MIL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 6 · MIL 16lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 78%, WSH 22% · Updated Dec 1, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 12.5
Expected score
MIL 124.3 – 111.8 WSH
Expected total
236.2
BucksThe matchupWizards
−362Our fair odds+362
124.3Expected points111.8
+0.03Power rating−1.53
115.5Points / game112.5
117.7Allowed / game127.7
49.4FG%46.3
41.13P%37.1
39.9Rebounds / game43.1
9−12Season record2−16
2−8Last 101−9
Alex Antetokounmpo · Mark Sears
Pete Nance · Taurean PrinceOut (4 each)Alex Sarr · Corey Kispert
Sharife Cooper · Tre Johnson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair78.4%21.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−36278%————
WSHWashington Wizards+36222%————
SpreadMIL by 12.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks−12.5our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+12.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.2
Over236.2our total————
Under236.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 12.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 4%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 4%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%
← MIL wins byWSH wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more75%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more59%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more42%
Within 5 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.2 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FMarvin Bagley IIIstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·WSH
Nov 29, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Nov 28, 2025 at IND
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 1, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · right thumb; sprainQuestionable
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left adductor; strain injury managementProbable
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right adductor; sorenessOut
WSHCorey Kispert · right thumb; distal phalanx fractureOut
WSHSharife Cooper · right calf; strainOut
WSHTre Johnson · left hip flexor; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
MIL·WSH
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−1.53
115.5
points / game
112.5
117.7
points allowed / game
127.7
9−12
season record
2−16
6−6
home record
1−6
3−6
away record
1−10
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
1−9
49.4
FG%
46.3
41.1
3P%
37.1
39.9
rebounds / game
43.1
27.0
assists / game
25.6
14.5
turnovers / game
16.8
47.0
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

MIL · WSH · 34 days
Milwaukee BucksWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 1−9
Oct 22, 2025at MILMIL 133 − 120
Feb 21, 2025at WSHMIL 104 − 101
Dec 21, 2024at MILMIL 112 − 101
Nov 30, 2024at MILMIL 124 − 114
Apr 2, 2024at WSHWSH 117 − 113
Nov 24, 2023at MILMIL 131 − 128
Nov 20, 2023at WSHMIL 142 − 129
Apr 4, 2023at WSHMIL 140 − 128
Mar 5, 2023at WSHMIL 117 − 111
Jan 3, 2023at MILMIL 123 − 113

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025at MIA103 − 106L
Nov 24, 2025vs POR103 − 115L
Nov 22, 2025vs DET116 − 129L
Nov 20, 2025vs PHI114 − 123L
Nov 17, 2025at CLE106 − 118L
Nov 15, 2025vs LAL95 − 119L
Nov 14, 2025vs CHA147 − 134W
Nov 12, 2025at CHA100 − 111L

WSH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Nov 28, 2025at IND86 − 119L
Nov 25, 2025vs ATL132 − 113W
Nov 22, 2025at CHI120 − 121L
Nov 21, 2025at TOR110 − 140L
Nov 19, 2025at MIN109 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs BKN106 − 129L
Nov 12, 2025at HOU112 − 135L
Nov 10, 2025at DET135 − 137L
Nov 8, 2025vs DAL105 − 111L
Nov 7, 2025vs CLE115 − 148L