bayesRatings

Nets at Wizards

NBA · Sunday, Nov 16 · 5:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final BKN 129 – WSH 106

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN28353135129
WSH28253122106
Team box
BKN·WSH
42-79
field goals
37-84
17-41
3-pointers
12-34
28-35
free throws
20-22
44
rebounds
33
32
assists
21
15
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN343497
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH322965
Tyrese MartinBKN262024
Nic ClaxtonBKN301787
CJ McCollumWSH321723
Khris MiddletonWSH271452

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +24
BKN +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 6 · BKN 24lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 55%, WSH 45% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
BKN by 4.0
Expected score
BKN 115.5 – 111.5 WSH
Expected total
227.1
NetsThe matchupWizards
−125Our fair odds+125
115.5Expected points111.5
−0.94Power rating−1.43
108.9Points / game113.5
123.2Allowed / game129.7
43.2FG%46.1
32.33P%36.9
38.4Rebounds / game44.8
1−11Season record1−11
1−9Last 100−10
Ben Saraf · Cam Thomas
Danny Wolf · Haywood Highsmith
Nolan Traore
OutJamir Watkins · Sharife Cooper
Will Riley

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets−12555%————
WSHWashington Wizards+12545%————
SpreadBKN by 4.0
BKNBrooklyn Nets−4our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.1
Over227.1our total————
Under227.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Brooklyn Nets by 4.0 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%
← BKN wins byWSH wins by →
Brooklyn Nets wins by 5 or more51%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 10 or more36%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.1 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·WSH
Nov 14, 2025 at ORL
last game
Nov 12, 2025 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNCam Thomas · left hamstring; strainOut
BKNDanny Wolf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNNolan Traore · g league - on assignmentOut
Washington Wizards
WSHJamir Watkins · g league - two-wayOut
WSHSharife Cooper · g league - two-wayOut
WSHWill Riley · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
BKN·WSH
−0.94
rating (0 = average)
−1.43
108.9
points / game
113.5
123.2
points allowed / game
129.7
1−11
season record
1−11
0−6
home record
0−5
1−5
away record
1−6
L4
streak
L10
1−9
last 10
0−10
43.2
FG%
46.1
32.3
3P%
36.9
38.4
rebounds / game
44.8
24.0
assists / game
25.6
15.2
turnovers / game
17.5
41.5
points in paint / game
47.7

Rating Trend

BKN · WSH · 20 days
Brooklyn NetsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Mar 29, 2025at WSHBKN 115 − 112
Feb 24, 2025at WSHWSH 107 − 99
Feb 5, 2025at BKNWSH 119 − 102
Mar 27, 2024at WSHBKN 122 − 119
Dec 29, 2023at WSHWSH 110 − 104
Dec 8, 2023at BKNBKN 124 − 97
Nov 12, 2023at BKNBKN 102 − 94
Feb 4, 2023at BKNBKN 125 − 123
Dec 12, 2022at WSHBKN 112 − 100
Nov 30, 2022at BKNBKN 113 − 107

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Nov 14, 2025at ORL98 − 105L
Nov 11, 2025vs TOR109 − 119L
Nov 9, 2025at NY98 − 134L
Nov 7, 2025vs DET107 − 125L
Nov 5, 2025at IND112 − 103W
Nov 3, 2025vs MIN109 − 125L
Nov 2, 2025vs PHI105 − 129L
Oct 29, 2025vs ATL112 − 117L
Oct 27, 2025at HOU109 − 137L
Oct 26, 2025at SA107 − 118L

WSH · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Nov 12, 2025at HOU112 − 135L
Nov 10, 2025at DET135 − 137L
Nov 8, 2025vs DAL105 − 111L
Nov 7, 2025vs CLE115 − 148L
Nov 5, 2025at BOS107 − 136L
Nov 3, 2025at NY102 − 119L
Nov 1, 2025vs ORL94 − 125L
Oct 30, 2025at OKC108 − 127L
Oct 28, 2025vs PHI134 − 139L
Oct 26, 2025vs CHA113 − 139L