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Bucks at Pistons

NBA · Saturday, Dec 6 · 6:30 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final MIL 112 – DET 124
← NBA / Dec 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL22342531112
DET29323033124
Team box
MIL·DET
37-84
field goals
43-86
16-38
3-pointers
15-40
22-32
free throws
23-31
36
rebounds
53
24
assists
31
12
turnovers
16
38
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL363246
Cade CunninghamDET3223612
Isaiah StewartDET261920
Jalen DurenDET3316161
Kyle KuzmaMIL291541
Ausar ThompsonDET271368

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +27
MIL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 27 · MIL 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 37%, DET 63% · Updated Dec 6, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 4.3
Expected score
DET 117.9 – 113.5 MIL
Expected total
231.4
BucksThe matchupPistons
+169Our fair odds−169
113.5Expected points117.9
−0.01Power rating+0.28
115.2Points / game118.5
117.7Allowed / game113.3
49.5FG%48.3
41.03P%35.3
39.6Rebounds / game46.5
10−14Season record18−5
2−8Last 107−3
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean PrinceOutBobi Klintman · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · DET chance
Our model fair37.1%62.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+16937%————
DETDetroit Pistons−16963%————
SpreadDET by 4.3
MILMilwaukee Bucks+4.3our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.4
Over231.4our total————
Under231.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.3 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more52%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more37%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.4 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·DET
Dec 5, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Dec 5, 2025 vs POR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 6, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILAJ Green · left shoulder; contusionQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · left ankle; sprainOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETTobias Harris · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
MIL·DET
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
115.2
points / game
118.5
117.7
points allowed / game
113.3
10−14
season record
18−5
7−7
home record
10−2
3−7
away record
8−3
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
7−3
49.5
FG%
48.3
41.0
3P%
35.3
39.6
rebounds / game
46.5
27.1
assists / game
25.9
14.8
turnovers / game
16.1
46.0
points in paint / game
57.4

Rating Trend

MIL · DET · 39 days
Milwaukee BucksDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 1−9
Dec 3, 2025at MILMIL 113 − 109
Nov 22, 2025at MILDET 129 − 116
Apr 13, 2025at MILMIL 140 − 133
Apr 11, 2025at DETMIL 125 − 119
Dec 3, 2024at DETMIL 128 − 107
Nov 13, 2024at MILMIL 127 − 120
Jan 22, 2024at DETMIL 122 − 113
Jan 20, 2024at DETMIL 141 − 135
Dec 16, 2023at MILMIL 146 − 114
Nov 8, 2023at MILMIL 120 − 118

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025at MIA103 − 106L
Nov 24, 2025vs POR103 − 115L
Nov 22, 2025vs DET116 − 129L
Nov 20, 2025vs PHI114 − 123L
Nov 17, 2025at CLE106 − 118L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W
Dec 3, 2025at MIL109 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025vs ATL99 − 98W
Nov 29, 2025at MIA138 − 135W
Nov 28, 2025vs ORL109 − 112L
Nov 26, 2025at BOS114 − 117L
Nov 24, 2025at IND122 − 117W
Nov 22, 2025at MIL129 − 116W
Nov 18, 2025at ATL120 − 112W
Nov 17, 2025vs IND127 − 112W