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76ers at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final PHI 116 – MIL 101
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI33362423116
MIL20292824101
Team box
PHI·MIL
39-86
field goals
35-76
17-43
3-pointers
11-32
21-22
free throws
20-27
42
rebounds
37
25
assists
26
15
turnovers
18
36
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Quentin GrimesPHI292245
Bobby PortisMIL232240
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL372079
Paul GeorgePHI302055
Myles TurnerMIL231922
Jabari WalkerPHI181821

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +26
PHI +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 2 · PHI 26lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 35%, MIL 65% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 5.0
Expected score
MIL 118.5 – 113.5 PHI
Expected total
231.9
76ersThe matchupBucks
+185Our fair odds−185
113.5Expected points118.5
−0.40Power rating−0.01
117.4Points / game115.8
117.0Allowed / game117.8
46.1FG%49.6
36.13P%41.3
44.6Rebounds / game39.7
12−9Season record10−13
5−5Last 102−8
Joel Embiid · Kelly Oubre Jr.
Trendon WatfordOut (3 each)Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair35.1%64.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+18535%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−18565%————
SpreadMIL by 5.0
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−5our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 5.0 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%
← PHI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more54%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more38%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIL
Dec 4, 2025 vs GS
last game
Dec 3, 2025 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
PHI·MIL
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
117.4
points / game
115.8
117.0
points allowed / game
117.8
12−9
season record
10−13
7−6
home record
7−6
5−3
away record
3−7
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
46.1
FG%
49.6
36.1
3P%
41.3
44.6
rebounds / game
39.7
25.8
assists / game
27.2
15.0
turnovers / game
14.7
50.4
points in paint / game
46.3

Rating Trend

PHI · MIL · 38 days
Philadelphia 76ersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
Nov 20, 2025at MILPHI 123 − 114
Apr 3, 2025at PHIMIL 126 − 113
Feb 9, 2025at MILMIL 135 − 127
Jan 19, 2025at MILMIL 123 − 109
Oct 23, 2024at PHIMIL 124 − 109
Mar 14, 2024at MILMIL 114 − 105
Feb 25, 2024at PHIMIL 119 − 98
Oct 26, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 117
Apr 2, 2023at MILMIL 117 − 104
Mar 4, 2023at MILPHI 133 − 130

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH121 − 102W
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL134 − 142L
Nov 28, 2025at BKN115 − 103W
Nov 25, 2025vs ORL103 − 144L
Nov 23, 2025vs MIA117 − 127L
Nov 20, 2025at MIL123 − 114W
Nov 19, 2025vs TOR112 − 121L
Nov 17, 2025vs LAC110 − 108W
Nov 14, 2025at DET105 − 114L

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025at MIA103 − 106L
Nov 24, 2025vs POR103 − 115L
Nov 22, 2025vs DET116 − 129L
Nov 20, 2025vs PHI114 − 123L
Nov 17, 2025at CLE106 − 118L
Nov 15, 2025vs LAL95 − 119L