bayesRatings

Bulls at Hawks

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final CHI 126 – ATL 123
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI30253734126
ATL36323718123
Team box
CHI·ATL
46-91
field goals
48-95
13-39
3-pointers
14-42
21-28
free throws
13-20
48
rebounds
38
35
assists
38
16
turnovers
12
64
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3924910
Coby WhiteCHI312404
Trae YoungATL3122115
Nikola VucevicCHI3121104
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342112
Josh GiddeyCHI36191115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +18
CHI +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 18 · CHI 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 42%, ATL 58% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 1.5
Expected score
ATL 124.5 – 123.0 CHI
Expected total
247.5
BullsThe matchupHawks
+136Our fair odds−136
123.0Expected points124.5
−0.22Power rating−0.14
119.5Points / game118.7
123.0Allowed / game119.4
47.6FG%48.2
36.83P%36.6
45.1Rebounds / game41.7
13−15Season record15−15
4−6Last 103−7
Emanuel Miller · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa Essengue · Trentyn FlowersOutDyson Daniels · Eli John Ndiaye
Kristaps Porzingis · Mouhamed Gueye
N'Faly Dante

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+13642%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−13658%————
SpreadATL by 1.5
CHIChicago Bulls+1.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 247.5
Over247.5our total————
Under247.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 1.5 expected
Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%
← CHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more44%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more30%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

247.5 expected
195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: <1%211 points: <1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 2%260 points: 2%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: 1%280 points: 1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%310 points: <1%311 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 237.566%
Total over 247.549%
Total over 257.531%
Total from 238 to 25735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·ATL
Dec 21, 2025 at ATL
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · g league - two-wayOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLDyson Daniels · right hip; inflammationOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLMouhamed Gueye · right shoulder; sprainOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · coach's decisionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
CHI·ATL
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
119.5
points / game
118.7
123.0
points allowed / game
119.4
13−15
season record
15−15
7−6
home record
5−8
6−9
away record
10−7
W3
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
47.6
FG%
48.2
36.8
3P%
36.6
45.1
rebounds / game
41.7
29.2
assists / game
30.9
15.1
turnovers / game
15.3
55.1
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

CHI · ATL · 56 days
Chicago BullsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Dec 21, 2025at ATLCHI 152 − 150
Oct 27, 2025at CHICHI 128 − 123
Jan 15, 2025at CHIATL 110 − 94
Dec 26, 2024at ATLATL 141 − 133
Nov 22, 2024at CHICHI 136 − 122
Nov 9, 2024at ATLCHI 125 − 113
Apr 1, 2024at CHIATL 113 − 101
Feb 12, 2024at ATLCHI 136 − 126
Dec 26, 2023at CHICHI 118 − 113
Apr 4, 2023at CHIATL 123 − 105

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 21, 2025at ATL152 − 150W
Dec 19, 2025at CLE136 − 125W
Dec 17, 2025vs CLE127 − 111W
Dec 14, 2025vs NO104 − 114L
Dec 12, 2025at CHA129 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs GS91 − 123L
Dec 5, 2025vs IND105 − 120L
Dec 3, 2025vs BKN103 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025at ORL120 − 125L
Nov 29, 2025at IND101 − 103L

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W