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Pacers at Bulls

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final IND 120 – CHI 105
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND30323028120
CHI33242622105
Team box
IND·CHI
45-84
field goals
34-77
18-39
3-pointers
13-35
12-16
free throws
24-29
35
rebounds
46
24
assists
21
14
turnovers
19
44
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND3136101
Bennedict MathurinIND382853
Coby WhiteCHI262236
Matas BuzelisCHI3519122
Andrew NembhardIND331527
Jevon CarterCHI221431

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +19
IND +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 7 · IND 19lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 49%, CHI 51% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 0.2
Expected score
IND 120.4 – 120.2 CHI
Expected total
240.6
PacersThe matchupBulls
+104Our fair odds−104
120.4Expected points120.2
+0.02Power rating−0.18
110.6Points / game119.1
120.1Allowed / game122.7
43.1FG%47.2
32.43P%37.0
44.5Rebounds / game45.8
4−18Season record9−12
3−7Last 103−7
Aaron Nesmith · Ben Sheppard
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOutKevin Huerter · Noa Essengue

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · CHI chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+10449%————
CHIChicago Bulls−10451%————
SpreadIND by 0.2
INDIndiana Pacers−0.2our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.6
Over240.6our total————
Under240.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 0.2 expected
Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%
← IND wins byCHI wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more40%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more27%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

240.6 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GGarrison Mathewsstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
FJulian Phillipsstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·CHI
Dec 3, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Dec 3, 2025 vs BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee; mcl sprainOut
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIKevin Huerter · left adductor; strainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; contusionOut
CHIIsaac Okoro · left lumbar; radiculopathyDoubtful
CHIJalen Smith · left hamstring; strainDoubtful
CHITre Jones · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
CHIAyo Dosunmu · right thumb; sprainQuestionable
CHICoby White · left calf; strainQuestionable
CHIZach Collins · left scaphoid; fractureQuestionable
CHIDalen Terry · left calf; strainProbable
CHIPatrick Williams · left wrist; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
IND·CHI
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
110.6
points / game
119.1
120.1
points allowed / game
122.7
4−18
season record
9−12
4−8
home record
6−3
0−10
away record
3−9
L2
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
3−7
43.1
FG%
47.2
32.4
3P%
37.0
44.5
rebounds / game
45.8
23.4
assists / game
29.0
14.4
turnovers / game
15.4
45.8
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

IND · CHI · 38 days
Indiana PacersChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 4−6
Nov 29, 2025at INDIND 103 − 101
Mar 10, 2025at CHICHI 121 − 103
Mar 2, 2025at INDIND 127 − 112
Jan 8, 2025at INDIND 129 − 113
Dec 6, 2024at CHIIND 132 − 123
Mar 27, 2024at CHICHI 125 − 99
Mar 13, 2024at INDCHI 132 − 129
Dec 28, 2023at CHIIND 120 − 104
Oct 30, 2023at INDCHI 112 − 105
Mar 5, 2023at CHIIND 125 − 122

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W
Nov 28, 2025vs WSH119 − 86W
Nov 26, 2025at TOR95 − 97L
Nov 24, 2025vs DET117 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at CLE109 − 120L
Nov 19, 2025vs CHA127 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025at DET112 − 127L
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR111 − 129L

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Dec 3, 2025vs BKN103 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025at ORL120 − 125L
Nov 29, 2025at IND101 − 103L
Nov 28, 2025at CHA116 − 123L
Nov 24, 2025at NO130 − 143L
Nov 22, 2025vs WSH121 − 120W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIA107 − 143L
Nov 19, 2025at POR122 − 121W
Nov 17, 2025at DEN130 − 127W
Nov 16, 2025at UTAH147 − 150L