bayesRatings

Hawks at Hornets

NBA · Thursday, Dec 18 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final ATL 126 – CHA 133
← NBA / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL32372631126
CHA37432726133
Team box
ATL·CHA
48-92
field goals
49-91
11-37
3-pointers
24-49
19-22
free throws
11-17
35
rebounds
37
31
assists
39
15
turnovers
16
62
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3943119
LaMelo BallCHA2928413
Kon KnueppelCHA352857
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342882
Brandon MillerCHA352658
Miles BridgesCHA321632

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +24
ATL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 24 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 65%, CHA 35% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 5.6
Expected score
ATL 119.1 – 113.5 CHA
Expected total
232.7
HawksThe matchupHornets
−187Our fair odds+187
119.1Expected points113.5
−0.04Power rating−0.90
118.0Points / game114.8
117.4Allowed / game118.4
48.3FG%45.7
36.93P%34.9
42.1Rebounds / game44.5
15−12Season record8−18
5−5Last 104−6
Caleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola DjurisicOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Collin Sexton
Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Liam McNeeley

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair65.2%34.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−18765%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+18735%————
SpreadATL by 5.6
ATLAtlanta Hawks−5.6our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.7
Over232.7our total————
Under232.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 5.6 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%
← ATL wins byCHA wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more56%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more40%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.7 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CHA
Dec 14, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at CLE
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 18, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHACollin Sexton · left quadriceps; strainOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPat Connaughton · right calf; strainOut
CHATre Mann · right knee; bone bruiseOut
CHALaMelo Ball · left ankle; bone bruiseProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
ATL·CHA
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.90
118.0
points / game
114.8
117.4
points allowed / game
118.4
15−12
season record
8−18
5−6
home record
5−8
10−6
away record
3−10
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
48.3
FG%
45.7
36.9
3P%
34.9
42.1
rebounds / game
44.5
30.8
assists / game
25.6
15.5
turnovers / game
15.8
52.6
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

ATL · CHA · 51 days
Atlanta HawksCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 4−6
Nov 23, 2025at ATLATL 113 − 110
Mar 18, 2025at CHAATL 134 − 102
Mar 12, 2025at ATLATL 123 − 110
Nov 30, 2024at CHAATL 107 − 104
Oct 25, 2024at ATLATL 125 − 120
Apr 10, 2024at ATLCHA 115 − 114
Mar 23, 2024at ATLATL 132 − 91
Feb 14, 2024at CHACHA 122 − 99
Oct 25, 2023at CHACHA 116 − 110
Feb 13, 2023at CHACHA 144 − 138

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W

CHA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025at CLE119 − 111W
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI126 − 129L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN106 − 115L
Dec 5, 2025at TOR111 − 86W
Dec 3, 2025at NY104 − 119L
Dec 1, 2025at BKN103 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025vs TOR118 − 111W
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI123 − 116W
Nov 26, 2025vs NY101 − 129L
Nov 23, 2025at ATL110 − 113L