bayesRatings

Hornets at Nets

NBA · Monday, Dec 1 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final CHA 103 – BKN 116
← NBA / Dec 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA27322321103
BKN26332928116
Team box
CHA·BKN
38-85
field goals
43-96
12-32
3-pointers
17-43
15-18
free throws
13-17
42
rebounds
43
26
assists
33
18
turnovers
11
48
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN363574
Kon KnueppelCHA351864
Noah ClowneyBKN301824
Collin SextonCHA191562
Nic ClaxtonBKN3313116
LaMelo BallCHA3012514

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +16
CHA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 16 · CHA 11lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 40%, BKN 60% · Updated Dec 1, 2025

Expected margin
BKN by 2.2
Expected score
BKN 109.9 – 107.8 CHA
Expected total
217.7
HornetsThe matchupNets
+151Our fair odds−151
107.8Expected points109.9
−1.06Power rating−0.89
115.8Points / game108.4
120.2Allowed / game119.3
45.5FG%43.9
34.53P%33.5
44.5Rebounds / game39.0
6−14Season record3−16
3−7Last 102−8
Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Josh Green · KJ Simpson
Pat ConnaughtonOutCam Thomas · Haywood Highsmith
Nolan Traore · Terance Mann

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · BKN chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+15140%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets−15160%————
SpreadBKN by 2.2
CHACharlotte Hornets+2.2our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.7
Over217.7our total————
Under217.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Brooklyn Nets by 2.2 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%
← CHA wins byBKN wins by →
Brooklyn Nets wins by 5 or more46%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 10 or more32%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.7 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.570%
Total over 217.550%
Total over 227.530%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTyrese Martinstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·BKN
Nov 29, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Nov 29, 2025 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 1, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAPat Connaughton · right calf; strainOut
CHATre Mann · left ankle; impingementQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNCam Thomas · left hamstring; strainOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNNolan Traore · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNTerance Mann · right rib; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
CHA·BKN
−1.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.89
115.8
points / game
108.4
120.2
points allowed / game
119.3
6−14
season record
3−16
5−6
home record
0−9
1−8
away record
3−7
W2
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
2−8
45.5
FG%
43.9
34.5
3P%
33.5
44.5
rebounds / game
39.0
25.6
assists / game
24.3
15.8
turnovers / game
15.4
50.0
points in paint / game
40.2

Rating Trend

CHA · BKN · 34 days
Charlotte HornetsBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 6−4
Oct 22, 2025at CHACHA 136 − 117
Mar 8, 2025at CHACHA 105 − 102
Feb 10, 2025at BKNBKN 97 − 89
Jan 29, 2025at CHABKN 104 − 83
Nov 19, 2024at BKNBKN 116 − 115
Mar 9, 2024at CHACHA 110 − 99
Nov 30, 2023at BKNCHA 129 − 128
Oct 30, 2023at CHABKN 133 − 121
Mar 5, 2023at BKNBKN 102 − 86
Dec 31, 2022at CHABKN 123 − 106

CHA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Nov 29, 2025vs TOR118 − 111W
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI123 − 116W
Nov 26, 2025vs NY101 − 129L
Nov 23, 2025at ATL110 − 113L
Nov 22, 2025vs LAC116 − 131L
Nov 19, 2025at IND118 − 127L
Nov 17, 2025at TOR108 − 110L
Nov 15, 2025vs OKC96 − 109L
Nov 14, 2025at MIL134 − 147L
Nov 12, 2025vs MIL111 − 100W

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Nov 29, 2025at MIL99 − 116L
Nov 28, 2025vs PHI103 − 115L
Nov 24, 2025vs NY100 − 113L
Nov 23, 2025at TOR109 − 119L
Nov 21, 2025at BOS113 − 105W
Nov 18, 2025vs BOS99 − 113L
Nov 16, 2025at WSH129 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at ORL98 − 105L
Nov 11, 2025vs TOR109 − 119L
Nov 9, 2025at NY98 − 134L