bayesRatings

Raptors at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Nov 29 · 5:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final TOR 111 – CHA 118
← NBA / Nov 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
TOR342429177111
CHA2131282414118
Team box
TOR·CHA
44-99
field goals
41-93
9-29
3-pointers
10-39
14-17
free throws
26-29
52
rebounds
39
34
assists
24
16
turnovers
9
58
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Miles BridgesCHA413530
Scottie BarnesTOR3930125
Immanuel QuickleyTOR3722310
Brandon IngramTOR402264
Kon KnueppelCHA372064
Collin SextonCHA331815

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +17
TOR +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: CHA 7 · TOR 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 67%, CHA 33% · Updated Nov 29, 2025

Expected margin
TOR by 6.3
Expected score
TOR 115.9 – 109.5 CHA
Expected total
225.4
RaptorsThe matchupHornets
−201Our fair odds+201
115.9Expected points109.5
−0.09Power rating−1.06
119.2Points / game115.7
112.5Allowed / game120.6
49.7FG%45.6
36.83P%35.0
42.4Rebounds / game44.8
14−5Season record5−14
9−1Last 102−8
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jonathan Mogbo
RJ BarrettOut (5 each)Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Josh Green · KJ Simpson
Pat Connaughton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHA chance
Our model fair66.8%33.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−20167%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+20133%————
SpreadTOR by 6.3
TORToronto Raptors−6.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.4
Over225.4our total————
Under225.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 6.3 expected
Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%
← TOR wins byCHA wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more58%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more42%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHA
Nov 26, 2025 vs IND
last game
Nov 28, 2025 vs CHI
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 29, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprainOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAPat Connaughton · right calf; strainOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
TOR·CHA
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−1.06
119.2
points / game
115.7
112.5
points allowed / game
120.6
14−5
season record
5−14
7−2
home record
4−6
7−3
away record
1−8
W9
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
2−8
49.7
FG%
45.6
36.8
3P%
35.0
42.4
rebounds / game
44.8
29.6
assists / game
25.7
14.0
turnovers / game
16.1
53.8
points in paint / game
49.4

Rating Trend

TOR · CHA · 32 days
Toronto RaptorsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Nov 17, 2025at TORTOR 110 − 108
Apr 9, 2025at TORTOR 126 − 96
Mar 28, 2025at TORTOR 108 − 97
Oct 30, 2024at CHACHA 138 − 133
Mar 3, 2024at TORTOR 111 − 106
Feb 7, 2024at CHATOR 123 − 117
Dec 18, 2023at TORTOR 114 − 99
Dec 8, 2023at CHACHA 119 − 116
Apr 4, 2023at CHATOR 120 − 100
Apr 2, 2023at CHATOR 128 − 108

TOR · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Nov 26, 2025vs IND97 − 95W
Nov 24, 2025vs CLE110 − 99W
Nov 23, 2025vs BKN119 − 109W
Nov 21, 2025vs WSH140 − 110W
Nov 19, 2025at PHI121 − 112W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHA110 − 108W
Nov 15, 2025at IND129 − 111W
Nov 13, 2025at CLE126 − 113W
Nov 11, 2025at BKN119 − 109W
Nov 8, 2025at PHI120 − 130L

CHA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI123 − 116W
Nov 26, 2025vs NY101 − 129L
Nov 23, 2025at ATL110 − 113L
Nov 22, 2025vs LAC116 − 131L
Nov 19, 2025at IND118 − 127L
Nov 17, 2025at TOR108 − 110L
Nov 15, 2025vs OKC96 − 109L
Nov 14, 2025at MIL134 − 147L
Nov 12, 2025vs MIL111 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025vs LAL111 − 121L