bayesRatings

Bulls at Hornets

NBA · Friday, Dec 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final CHI 129 – CHA 126
← NBA / Dec 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI33223440129
CHA29323134126
Team box
CHI·CHA
52-94
field goals
51-97
10-28
3-pointers
16-37
15-19
free throws
8-10
44
rebounds
32
29
assists
30
12
turnovers
9
80
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kon KnueppelCHA363359
Miles BridgesCHA343227
Josh GiddeyCHI3426711
Coby WhiteCHI302052
Brandon MillerCHA341854
Zach CollinsCHI201682

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +13
CHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 13 · CHI 7lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 60%, CHA 40% · Updated Dec 12, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 3.9
Expected score
CHI 118.0 – 114.1 CHA
Expected total
232.1
BullsThe matchupHornets
−153Our fair odds+153
118.0Expected points114.1
−0.32Power rating−0.98
117.3Points / game114.2
122.6Allowed / game118.3
46.6FG%45.5
36.63P%34.4
45.5Rebounds / game44.6
9−14Season record7−17
2−8Last 103−7
Ayo Dosunmu · Emanuel Miller
Kevin Huerter · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa EssengueOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Collin Sexton
Grant Williams · LaMelo Ball
Liam McNeeley

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · CHA chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls−15360%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+15340%————
SpreadCHI by 3.9
CHIChicago Bulls−3.9our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.1
Over232.1our total————
Under232.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 3.9 expected
Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%
← CHI wins byCHA wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more51%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more36%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.1 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GKJ Simpsonstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·CHA
Dec 7, 2025 vs GS
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs DEN
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 12, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAyo Dosunmu · right thumb; sprainOut
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHIKevin Huerter · left adductor; strainOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · g league - two-wayOut
CHICoby White · right calf; tightnessProbable
CHIIsaac Okoro · left lumbar; radiculopathyProbable
CHIJalen Smith · left hamstring; strainProbable
CHITre Jones · left ankle; sprainProbable
and 1 more
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHACollin Sexton · left quadriceps; strainOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHALaMelo Ball · left ankle; bone bruiseOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPat Connaughton · right calf; strainOut
CHATre Mann · right knee; bone bruiseOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
CHI·CHA
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.98
117.3
points / game
114.2
122.6
points allowed / game
118.3
9−14
season record
7−17
6−5
home record
5−7
3−9
away record
2−10
L7
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
3−7
46.6
FG%
45.5
36.6
3P%
34.4
45.5
rebounds / game
44.6
28.4
assists / game
25.3
15.5
turnovers / game
16.0
53.2
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

CHI · CHA · 45 days
Chicago BullsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Nov 28, 2025at CHACHA 123 − 116
Apr 6, 2025at CHACHI 131 − 117
Jan 17, 2025at CHICHA 125 − 123
Dec 30, 2024at CHACHI 115 − 108
Dec 13, 2024at CHICHI 109 − 95
Jan 31, 2024at CHACHI 117 − 110
Jan 8, 2024at CHACHI 119 − 112
Jan 5, 2024at CHICHI 104 − 91
Dec 6, 2023at CHICHI 111 − 100
Mar 31, 2023at CHACHI 121 − 91

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Dec 7, 2025vs GS91 − 123L
Dec 5, 2025vs IND105 − 120L
Dec 3, 2025vs BKN103 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025at ORL120 − 125L
Nov 29, 2025at IND101 − 103L
Nov 28, 2025at CHA116 − 123L
Nov 24, 2025at NO130 − 143L
Nov 22, 2025vs WSH121 − 120W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIA107 − 143L
Nov 19, 2025at POR122 − 121W

CHA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN106 − 115L
Dec 5, 2025at TOR111 − 86W
Dec 3, 2025at NY104 − 119L
Dec 1, 2025at BKN103 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025vs TOR118 − 111W
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI123 − 116W
Nov 26, 2025vs NY101 − 129L
Nov 23, 2025at ATL110 − 113L
Nov 22, 2025vs LAC116 − 131L
Nov 19, 2025at IND118 − 127L