bayesRatings

Nuggets at Hornets

NBA · Sunday, Dec 7 · 5:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final DEN 115 – CHA 106
← NBA / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN34233028115
CHA34242325106
Team box
DEN·CHA
43-83
field goals
38-85
13-35
3-pointers
14-46
16-22
free throws
16-21
35
rebounds
47
29
assists
24
10
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN353435
Nikola JokicDEN3528911
Miles BridgesCHA372498
Brandon MillerCHA301755
KJ SimpsonCHA291651
Kon KnueppelCHA331444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +14
DEN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 6 · DEN 14lead changes: 23

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 79%, CHA 21% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 11.3
Expected score
DEN 120.9 – 109.5 CHA
Expected total
230.4
NuggetsThe matchupHornets
−386Our fair odds+386
120.9Expected points109.5
+0.59Power rating−1.03
125.5Points / game114.6
116.8Allowed / game118.4
51.5FG%45.5
39.83P%34.6
45.2Rebounds / game44.5
16−6Season record7−16
6−4Last 103−7
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Collin Sexton · Grant Williams
Josh Green · LaMelo Ball
Moussa Diabate

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · CHA chance
Our model fair79.4%20.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−38679%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+38621%————
SpreadDEN by 11.3
DENDenver Nuggets−11.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+11.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.4
Over230.4our total————
Under230.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 11.3 expected
Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%
← DEN wins byCHA wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more72%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more55%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GKJ Simpsonstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·CHA
Dec 5, 2025 at ATL
last game
Dec 5, 2025 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 7, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHACollin Sexton · left quadriceps; strainOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHALaMelo Ball · left ankle; bone bruiseOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · right knee; sorenessOut
CHAPat Connaughton · right calf; strainOut
CHATre Mann · right knee; bone bruiseOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
DEN·CHA
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−1.03
125.5
points / game
114.6
116.8
points allowed / game
118.4
16−6
season record
7−16
6−4
home record
5−6
10−2
away record
2−10
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
51.5
FG%
45.5
39.8
3P%
34.6
45.2
rebounds / game
44.5
29.5
assists / game
25.3
13.7
turnovers / game
16.1
53.2
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

DEN · CHA · 40 days
Denver NuggetsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 1−7
Feb 20, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 115
Feb 1, 2025at CHADEN 107 − 104
Jan 1, 2024at DENDEN 111 − 93
Dec 23, 2023at CHADEN 102 − 95
Feb 11, 2023at CHADEN 119 − 105
Dec 18, 2022at DENDEN 119 − 115
Mar 28, 2022at CHADEN 113 − 109
Dec 23, 2021at DENCHA 115 − 107

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L

CHA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 5, 2025at TOR111 − 86W
Dec 3, 2025at NY104 − 119L
Dec 1, 2025at BKN103 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025vs TOR118 − 111W
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI123 − 116W
Nov 26, 2025vs NY101 − 129L
Nov 23, 2025at ATL110 − 113L
Nov 22, 2025vs LAC116 − 131L
Nov 19, 2025at IND118 − 127L
Nov 17, 2025at TOR108 − 110L