bayesRatings

76ers at Hawks

NBA · Sunday, Dec 14 · 5:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final PHI 117 – ATL 120
← NBA / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI29263626117
ATL39203526120
Team box
PHI·ATL
38-101
field goals
43-99
17-41
3-pointers
17-33
24-29
free throws
17-21
54
rebounds
57
25
assists
33
12
turnovers
17
38
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paul GeorgePHI333543
Dyson DanielsATL3927104
VJ EdgecombePHI392662
Joel EmbiidPHI3022141
Onyeka OkongwuATL3620154
Vit KrejciATL261941

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +11
PHI +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 11 · PHI 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 37%, ATL 63% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 3.8
Expected score
ATL 120.0 – 116.2 PHI
Expected total
236.2
76ersThe matchupHawks
+171Our fair odds−171
116.2Expected points120.0
−0.33Power rating−0.01
116.8Points / game117.9
115.7Allowed / game117.5
45.5FG%48.5
36.13P%36.3
45.1Rebounds / game41.6
14−10Season record14−12
6−4Last 105−5
Hunter Sallis · Johni Broome
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Trendon Watford
Tyrese MaxeyOut (5 each)Caleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Jacob Toppin · Kristaps Porzingis
N'Faly Dante

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair37.0%63.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+17137%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−17163%————
SpreadATL by 3.8
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+3.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−3.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.2
Over236.2our total————
Under236.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 3.8 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more51%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more35%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.2 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Dec 12, 2025 vs IND
last game
Dec 12, 2025 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 14, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIHunter Sallis · g league - two-wayOut
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
PHITyrese Maxey · n/a; illnessOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · right shoulder; surgeryOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · concussion protocolOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
PHI·ATL
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
116.8
points / game
117.9
115.7
points allowed / game
117.5
14−10
season record
14−12
8−7
home record
4−6
6−3
away record
10−6
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
45.5
FG%
48.5
36.1
3P%
36.3
45.1
rebounds / game
41.6
25.4
assists / game
30.7
14.6
turnovers / game
15.4
48.7
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 47 days
Philadelphia 76ersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Nov 30, 2025at PHIATL 142 − 134
Apr 11, 2025at PHIATL 124 − 110
Mar 23, 2025at ATLATL 132 − 119
Mar 10, 2025at ATLATL 132 − 123
Feb 9, 2024at PHIATL 127 − 121
Jan 10, 2024at ATLATL 139 − 132
Dec 8, 2023at PHIPHI 125 − 114
Nov 17, 2023at ATLPHI 126 − 116
Apr 7, 2023at ATLPHI 136 − 131
Nov 28, 2022at PHIPHI 104 − 101

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH121 − 102W
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL134 − 142L
Nov 28, 2025at BKN115 − 103W
Nov 25, 2025vs ORL103 − 144L
Nov 23, 2025vs MIA117 − 127L
Nov 20, 2025at MIL123 − 114W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W
Nov 22, 2025at NO115 − 98W