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Pacers at 76ers

NBA · Friday, Dec 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final IND 105 – PHI 115
← NBA / Dec 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND31273215105
PHI34292725115
Team box
IND·PHI
38-96
field goals
35-79
13-38
3-pointers
12-37
16-19
free throws
33-43
46
rebounds
50
26
assists
22
7
turnovers
13
40
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Joel EmbiidPHI323993
Paul GeorgePHI332365
VJ EdgecombePHI392245
Pascal SiakamIND342052
Andrew NembhardIND351857
T.J. McConnellIND171525

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +11
IND +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 11 · IND 5lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 53%, PHI 47% · Updated Dec 12, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 1.0
Expected score
IND 115.8 – 114.8 PHI
Expected total
230.6
PacersThe matchup76ers
−114Our fair odds+114
115.8Expected points114.8
+0.04Power rating−0.33
111.2Points / game116.9
118.8Allowed / game116.1
43.6FG%45.6
33.23P%36.3
44.0Rebounds / game44.9
6−18Season record13−10
5−5Last 105−5
Aaron Nesmith · Ben Sheppard
Obi Toppin · Tyrese HaliburtonOut (4 each)Hunter Sallis · Kelly Oubre Jr.
Trendon Watford · Tyrese Maxey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · PHI chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−11453%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+11447%————
SpreadIND by 1.0
INDIndiana Pacers−1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.6
Over230.6our total————
Under230.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.0 expected
Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%
← IND wins byPHI wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more42%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more29%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.6 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·PHI
Dec 8, 2025 vs SAC
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs LAL
3 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 12, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee mcl; sprainOut
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionQuestionable
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainQuestionable
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIHunter Sallis · right shoulder; sprainOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
PHITyrese Maxey · n/a; illnessOut
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury recoveryProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
IND·PHI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
111.2
points / game
116.9
118.8
points allowed / game
116.1
6−18
season record
13−10
5−8
home record
7−7
1−10
away record
6−3
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
43.6
FG%
45.6
33.2
3P%
36.3
44.0
rebounds / game
44.9
23.5
assists / game
25.5
14.4
turnovers / game
14.7
45.2
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

IND · PHI · 45 days
Indiana PacersPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Mar 14, 2025at PHIIND 112 − 100
Jan 18, 2025at INDIND 115 − 102
Dec 13, 2024at PHIIND 121 − 107
Oct 27, 2024at INDPHI 118 − 114
Jan 25, 2024at INDIND 134 − 122
Nov 14, 2023at PHIIND 132 − 126
Nov 12, 2023at PHIPHI 137 − 126
Mar 18, 2023at INDPHI 141 − 121
Mar 6, 2023at INDPHI 147 − 143
Jan 4, 2023at PHIPHI 129 − 126

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 8, 2025vs SAC116 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W
Nov 28, 2025vs WSH119 − 86W
Nov 26, 2025at TOR95 − 97L
Nov 24, 2025vs DET117 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at CLE109 − 120L
Nov 19, 2025vs CHA127 − 118W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH121 − 102W
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL134 − 142L
Nov 28, 2025at BKN115 − 103W
Nov 25, 2025vs ORL103 − 144L
Nov 23, 2025vs MIA117 − 127L
Nov 20, 2025at MIL123 − 114W
Nov 19, 2025vs TOR112 − 121L