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Kings at Pacers

NBA · Monday, Dec 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final SAC 105 – IND 116
← NBA / Dec 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC23283717105
IND35312624116
Team box
SAC·IND
41-88
field goals
38-87
7-22
3-pointers
14-35
16-23
free throws
26-28
51
rebounds
41
28
assists
25
19
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Andrew NembhardIND3328412
Bennedict MathurinIND352562
Russell WestbrookSAC40241214
Pascal SiakamIND352354
DeMar DeRozanSAC362053
Zach LaVineSAC381623

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +19
SAC +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 19 · SAC 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 37%, IND 63% · Updated Dec 8, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 4.2
Expected score
IND 119.1 – 115.0 SAC
Expected total
234.1
KingsThe matchupPacers
+172Our fair odds−172
115.0Expected points119.1
−0.28Power rating+0.02
111.7Points / game111.0
122.3Allowed / game119.4
46.6FG%43.6
35.33P%33.0
39.6Rebounds / game44.1
6−17Season record5−18
3−7Last 104−6
Daeqwon Plowden · Dennis Schroder
Devin Carter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan CardwellOut (5 each)Aaron Nesmith · Ben Sheppard
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton Jackson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · IND chance
Our model fair36.8%63.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+17237%————
INDIndiana Pacers−17263%————
SpreadIND by 4.2
SACSacramento Kings+4.2our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.1
Over234.1our total————
Under234.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 4.2 expected
Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← SAC wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more52%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more36%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.1 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.529%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·IND
Dec 6, 2025 at MIA
last game
Dec 5, 2025 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 8, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDennis Schroder · right hip flexor; strainOut
SACDevin Carter · g league - on assignmentOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee mcl; sprainOut
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
SAC·IND
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
111.7
points / game
111.0
122.3
points allowed / game
119.4
6−17
season record
5−18
3−7
home record
4−8
3−10
away record
1−10
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
46.6
FG%
43.6
35.3
3P%
33.0
39.6
rebounds / game
44.1
25.7
assists / game
23.4
13.7
turnovers / game
14.4
49.2
points in paint / game
45.7

Rating Trend

SAC · IND · 41 days
Sacramento KingsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · IND 5−3
Mar 31, 2025at INDIND 111 − 109
Dec 22, 2024at SACIND 122 − 95
Feb 2, 2024at INDSAC 133 − 122
Jan 18, 2024at SACIND 126 − 121
Feb 3, 2023at INDIND 107 − 104
Nov 30, 2022at SACSAC 137 − 114
Mar 23, 2022at INDSAC 110 − 109
Nov 7, 2021at SACIND 94 − 91

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 6, 2025at MIA127 − 111W
Dec 3, 2025at HOU95 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs MEM107 − 115L
Nov 28, 2025at UTAH119 − 128L
Nov 26, 2025vs PHX100 − 112L
Nov 24, 2025vs MIN117 − 112W
Nov 22, 2025at DEN128 − 123W
Nov 20, 2025at MEM96 − 137L
Nov 19, 2025at OKC99 − 113L
Nov 16, 2025at SA110 − 123L

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W
Nov 28, 2025vs WSH119 − 86W
Nov 26, 2025at TOR95 − 97L
Nov 24, 2025vs DET117 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at CLE109 − 120L
Nov 19, 2025vs CHA127 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025at DET112 − 127L