bayesRatings

Kings at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Dec 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final SAC 127 – MIA 111
← NBA / Dec 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC34382926127
MIA31242333111
Team box
SAC·MIA
49-93
field goals
41-85
14-33
3-pointers
9-31
15-21
free throws
20-32
45
rebounds
41
24
assists
23
11
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zach LaVineSAC394251
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA352766
Simone FontecchioMIA262070
Norman PowellMIA271821
Keegan MurraySAC321641
Nique CliffordSAC181560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +28
SAC +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 3 · SAC 28lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 34%, MIA 66% · Updated Dec 6, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 6.1
Expected score
MIA 118.5 – 112.5 SAC
Expected total
231.0
KingsThe matchupHeat
+196Our fair odds−196
112.5Expected points118.5
−0.28Power rating+0.15
111.0Points / game122.8
122.8Allowed / game117.9
46.3FG%48.0
35.03P%37.3
39.3Rebounds / game45.9
5−17Season record14−9
2−8Last 107−3
Daeqwon Plowden · Dennis Schroder
Domantas Sabonis · Dylan Cardwell
Isaiah StevensOutKasparas Jakucionis · Myron Gardner
Terry Rozier · Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · MIA chance
Our model fair33.8%66.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+19634%————
MIAMiami Heat−19666%————
SpreadMIA by 6.1
SACSacramento Kings+6.1our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.0
Over231.0our total————
Under231.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 6.1 expected
Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%
← SAC wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more57%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more41%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.0 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDru Smithstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·MIA
Dec 3, 2025 at HOU
last game
Dec 5, 2025 at ORL
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 6, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDennis Schroder · right hip flexor; strainOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · contusion g league - on assignmentOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe;Doubtful
MIADavion Mitchell · right groin; tightnessQuestionable
MIAPelle Larsson · right hip flexor; tightnessQuestionable
MIANorman Powell · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
SAC·MIA
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
111.0
points / game
122.8
122.8
points allowed / game
117.9
5−17
season record
14−9
3−7
home record
10−2
2−10
away record
4−7
L4
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
7−3
46.3
FG%
48.0
35.0
3P%
37.3
39.3
rebounds / game
45.9
25.7
assists / game
29.9
13.9
turnovers / game
14.3
49.0
points in paint / game
56.5

Rating Trend

SAC · MIA · 39 days
Sacramento KingsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 4−4
Jan 6, 2025at SACSAC 123 − 118
Nov 4, 2024at MIASAC 111 − 110
Feb 26, 2024at SACMIA 121 − 110
Jan 31, 2024at MIAMIA 115 − 106
Nov 2, 2022at MIAMIA 110 − 107
Oct 29, 2022at SACSAC 119 − 113
Mar 28, 2022at MIAMIA 123 − 100
Jan 2, 2022at SACSAC 115 − 113

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Dec 3, 2025at HOU95 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs MEM107 − 115L
Nov 28, 2025at UTAH119 − 128L
Nov 26, 2025vs PHX100 − 112L
Nov 24, 2025vs MIN117 − 112W
Nov 22, 2025at DEN128 − 123W
Nov 20, 2025at MEM96 − 137L
Nov 19, 2025at OKC99 − 113L
Nov 16, 2025at SA110 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025at MIN110 − 124L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W