bayesRatings

Spurs at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Dec 19 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final SA 126 – ATL 98
← NBA / Dec 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA32363424126
ATL1925282698
Team box
SA·ATL
51-94
field goals
38-94
13-36
3-pointers
10-40
11-16
free throws
12-16
56
rebounds
43
31
assists
26
15
turnovers
17
60
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2126123
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL332324
Devin VassellSA271873
Jalen JohnsonATL3117116
Stephon CastleSA241727
Keldon JohnsonSA161332

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +38
SA +38
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 1 · SA 38lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 47%, ATL 53% · Updated Dec 19, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 120.5 – 120.0 SA
Expected total
240.5
SpursThe matchupHawks
+111Our fair odds−111
120.0Expected points120.5
+0.08Power rating−0.04
119.4Points / game118.3
114.7Allowed / game118.0
48.2FG%48.4
36.73P%36.6
45.3Rebounds / game41.9
19−8Season record15−13
7−3Last 104−6
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Kyle MangasOutCaleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+11147%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−11153%————
SpreadATL by 0.5
SASan Antonio Spurs+0.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.5
Over240.5our total————
Under240.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 0.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more42%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more28%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.5 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.548%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·ATL
Dec 18, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Dec 18, 2025 at CHA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 19, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAKyle Mangas · g league - two-wayOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
SA·ATL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
119.4
points / game
118.3
114.7
points allowed / game
118.0
19−8
season record
15−13
10−2
home record
5−6
9−6
away record
10−7
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.2
FG%
48.4
36.7
3P%
36.6
45.3
rebounds / game
41.9
26.0
assists / game
30.8
14.6
turnovers / game
15.5
49.6
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

SA · ATL · 52 days
San Antonio SpursAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 4−5
Nov 20, 2025at SASA 135 − 126
Feb 5, 2025at ATLSA 126 − 125
Dec 19, 2024at SASA 133 − 126
Jan 15, 2024at ATLATL 109 − 99
Nov 30, 2023at SAATL 137 − 135
Mar 19, 2023at SASA 126 − 118
Feb 11, 2023at ATLATL 125 − 106
Feb 11, 2022at ATLSA 136 − 121
Nov 24, 2021at SAATL 124 − 106

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L
Dec 13, 2025at OKC111 − 109W
Dec 10, 2025at LAL132 − 119W
Dec 8, 2025at NO135 − 132W
Dec 5, 2025at CLE117 − 130L
Dec 3, 2025at ORL114 − 112W
Dec 2, 2025vs MEM126 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025at MIN112 − 125L
Nov 28, 2025at DEN139 − 136W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L
Nov 30, 2025at PHI142 − 134W
Nov 28, 2025vs CLE130 − 123W
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L