bayesRatings

Spurs at Lakers

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 10 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final SA 132 – LAL 119
← NBA / Dec 10, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA39313428132
LAL30282932119
Team box
SA·LAL
43-86
field goals
43-87
17-38
3-pointers
16-37
29-36
free throws
17-23
50
rebounds
43
25
assists
27
12
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL413558
Stephon CastleSA2730106
Marcus SmartLAL282631
De'Aaron FoxSA312043
LeBron JamesLAL3619158
Keldon JohnsonSA221780

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +24
SA +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 6 · SA 24lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 37%, LAL 63% · Updated Dec 10, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 4.4
Expected score
LAL 118.7 – 114.3 SA
Expected total
233.0
SpursThe matchupLakers
+174Our fair odds−174
114.3Expected points118.7
+0.00Power rating+0.33
119.6Points / game118.3
115.3Allowed / game116.1
48.7FG%50.7
36.73P%35.7
44.6Rebounds / game41.0
16−7Season record17−6
7−3Last 108−2
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Riley Minix · Victor WembanyamaOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · LAL chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+17437%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−17463%————
SpreadLAL by 4.4
SASan Antonio Spurs+4.4our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.0
Over233.0our total————
Under233.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 4.4 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%
← SA wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more52%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more37%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.0 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·LAL
Dec 8, 2025 at NO
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 10, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut
SACarter Bryant · “”; illnessQuestionable
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar; muscle strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
SA·LAL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
119.6
points / game
118.3
115.3
points allowed / game
116.1
16−7
season record
17−6
9−2
home record
7−3
7−5
away record
10−3
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
8−2
48.7
FG%
50.7
36.7
3P%
35.7
44.6
rebounds / game
41.0
26.0
assists / game
25.2
14.8
turnovers / game
15.7
50.4
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

SA · LAL · 43 days
San Antonio SpursLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 8−2
Nov 5, 2025at LALLAL 118 − 116
Mar 17, 2025at LALLAL 125 − 109
Jan 13, 2025at LALSA 126 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at SALAL 119 − 101
Nov 15, 2024at SALAL 120 − 115
Feb 23, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 118
Dec 15, 2023at SASA 129 − 115
Dec 13, 2023at SALAL 122 − 119
Jan 25, 2023at LALLAL 113 − 104
Nov 26, 2022at SALAL 143 − 138

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 8, 2025at NO135 − 132W
Dec 5, 2025at CLE117 − 130L
Dec 3, 2025at ORL114 − 112W
Dec 2, 2025vs MEM126 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025at MIN112 − 125L
Nov 28, 2025at DEN139 − 136W
Nov 26, 2025at POR115 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHX102 − 111L
Nov 20, 2025vs ATL135 − 126W
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 7, 2025at PHI112 − 108W
Dec 5, 2025at BOS105 − 126L
Dec 4, 2025at TOR123 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs PHX108 − 125L
Nov 30, 2025vs NO133 − 121W
Nov 28, 2025vs DAL129 − 119W
Nov 25, 2025vs LAC135 − 118W
Nov 23, 2025at UTAH108 − 106W
Nov 18, 2025vs UTAH140 − 126W
Nov 15, 2025at MIL119 − 95W