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Lakers at Celtics

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final LAL 105 – BOS 126
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL17293623105
BOS39302829126
Team box
LAL·BOS
33-77
field goals
46-84
14-35
3-pointers
24-45
25-29
free throws
10-12
35
rebounds
38
15
assists
31
14
turnovers
16
34
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Austin ReavesLAL333638
Jaylen BrownBOS343088
Derrick WhiteBOS301956
Gabe VincentLAL301811
Jordan WalshBOS261741
Payton PritchardBOS301526

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +29
LAL +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 29 · LAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 34%, BOS 66% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 7.2
Expected score
BOS 114.6 – 107.5 LAL
Expected total
222.1
LakersThe matchupCeltics
+195Our fair odds−195
107.5Expected points114.6
+0.33Power rating+0.76
119.2Points / game116.7
116.0Allowed / game110.7
51.2FG%47.1
35.53P%36.0
40.8Rebounds / game44.2
16−5Season record13−9
8−2Last 108−2
LeBron James · Luka Doncic
Marcus SmartOut (3 each)Jayson Tatum · Max Shulga
Ron Harper Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair33.9%66.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+19534%————
BOSBoston Celtics−19566%————
SpreadBOS by 7.2
LALLos Angeles Lakers+7.2our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.1
Over222.1our total————
Under222.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 7.2 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%
← LAL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more59%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more44%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.568%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.529%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GGabe Vincentstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·BOS
Dec 4, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 4, 2025 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; & left foot joint arthritisOut
LALLuka Doncic · personal reasonsOut
LALMarcus Smart · left lumbar; muscle strainOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
LAL·BOS
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.76
119.2
points / game
116.7
116.0
points allowed / game
110.7
16−5
season record
13−9
7−3
home record
7−4
9−2
away record
6−5
W1
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
8−2
51.2
FG%
47.1
35.5
3P%
36.0
40.8
rebounds / game
44.2
25.7
assists / game
24.4
16.0
turnovers / game
11.5
52.9
points in paint / game
43.6

Rating Trend

LAL · BOS · 38 days
Los Angeles LakersBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BOS 5−3
Mar 8, 2025at BOSBOS 111 − 101
Jan 23, 2025at LALLAL 117 − 96
Feb 1, 2024at BOSLAL 114 − 105
Dec 25, 2023at LALBOS 126 − 115
Jan 28, 2023at BOSBOS 125 − 121
Dec 13, 2022at LALBOS 122 − 118
Dec 7, 2021at LALLAL 117 − 102
Nov 19, 2021at BOSBOS 130 − 108

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 4, 2025at TOR123 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs PHX108 − 125L
Nov 30, 2025vs NO133 − 121W
Nov 28, 2025vs DAL129 − 119W
Nov 25, 2025vs LAC135 − 118W
Nov 23, 2025at UTAH108 − 106W
Nov 18, 2025vs UTAH140 − 126W
Nov 15, 2025at MIL119 − 95W
Nov 14, 2025at NO118 − 104W
Nov 12, 2025at OKC92 − 121L

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 4, 2025at WSH146 − 101W
Dec 2, 2025vs NY123 − 117W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE117 − 115W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN115 − 119L
Nov 26, 2025vs DET117 − 114W
Nov 23, 2025vs ORL138 − 129W
Nov 21, 2025vs BKN105 − 113L
Nov 18, 2025at BKN113 − 99W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC121 − 118W
Nov 12, 2025vs MEM131 − 95W