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Lakers at Raptors

NBA · Thursday, Dec 4 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final LAL 123 – TOR 120
← NBA / Dec 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL31363323123
TOR26324022120
Team box
LAL·TOR
44-88
field goals
44-89
13-31
3-pointers
15-37
22-26
free throws
17-21
38
rebounds
41
26
assists
39
11
turnovers
15
58
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Austin ReavesLAL4144510
Scottie BarnesTOR3623119
Brandon IngramTOR362077
Deandre AytonLAL321780
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR251732
Jake LaRaviaLAL281470

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +13
LAL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 3 · LAL 13lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 56%, TOR 44% · Updated Dec 4, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 1.5
Expected score
LAL 114.8 – 113.2 TOR
Expected total
228.0
LakersThe matchupRaptors
−125Our fair odds+125
114.8Expected points113.2
+0.33Power rating−0.14
119.0Points / game117.7
115.8Allowed / game113.1
51.3FG%49.2
35.23P%36.2
41.0Rebounds / game42.7
15−5Season record15−7
8−2Last 108−2
Luka Doncic · Marcus SmartOutAlijah Martin · Chucky Hepburn
Jakob Poeltl · Ochai Agbaji
RJ Barrett

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair55.6%44.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−12556%————
TORToronto Raptors+12544%————
SpreadLAL by 1.5
LALLos Angeles Lakers−1.5our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 1.5 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%
← LAL wins byTOR wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more44%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more30%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GGabe Vincentstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FScottie Barnesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·TOR
Dec 1, 2025 vs PHX
last game
Dec 2, 2025 vs POR
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 4, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALLuka Doncic · personal reasonsOut
LALMarcus Smart · lower back; injury managementOut
Toronto Raptors
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · lower back; injury managementOut
TOROchai Agbaji · personal reasonsOut
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
LAL·TOR
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
119.0
points / game
117.7
115.8
points allowed / game
113.1
15−5
season record
15−7
7−3
home record
8−2
8−2
away record
7−5
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
8−2
51.3
FG%
49.2
35.2
3P%
36.2
41.0
rebounds / game
42.7
25.6
assists / game
29.9
16.2
turnovers / game
14.5
52.6
points in paint / game
54.2

Rating Trend

LAL · TOR · 37 days
Los Angeles LakersToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TOR 2−6
Nov 10, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 103
Nov 1, 2024at TORLAL 131 − 125
Apr 2, 2024at TORLAL 128 − 111
Jan 9, 2024at LALLAL 132 − 131
Mar 10, 2023at LALLAL 122 − 112
Dec 7, 2022at TORTOR 126 − 113
Mar 18, 2022at TORLAL 128 − 123
Mar 14, 2022at LALTOR 114 − 103

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 1, 2025vs PHX108 − 125L
Nov 30, 2025vs NO133 − 121W
Nov 28, 2025vs DAL129 − 119W
Nov 25, 2025vs LAC135 − 118W
Nov 23, 2025at UTAH108 − 106W
Nov 18, 2025vs UTAH140 − 126W
Nov 15, 2025at MIL119 − 95W
Nov 14, 2025at NO118 − 104W
Nov 12, 2025at OKC92 − 121L
Nov 10, 2025at CHA121 − 111W

TOR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 2, 2025vs POR121 − 118W
Nov 30, 2025at NY94 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025at CHA111 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025vs IND97 − 95W
Nov 24, 2025vs CLE110 − 99W
Nov 23, 2025vs BKN119 − 109W
Nov 21, 2025vs WSH140 − 110W
Nov 19, 2025at PHI121 − 112W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHA110 − 108W
Nov 15, 2025at IND129 − 111W