bayesRatings

Thunder at Spurs

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 7:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final OKC 110 – SA 130
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC29312228110
SA31272943130
Team box
OKC·SA
46-85
field goals
48-84
12-30
3-pointers
16-36
6-7
free throws
18-24
36
rebounds
34
23
assists
34
15
turnovers
9
48
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363338
Keldon JohnsonSA222511
Stephon CastleSA282403
Harrison BarnesSA262010
Jalen WilliamsOKC321768
Devin VassellSA281751

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +21
OKC +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 21 · OKC 7lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 75%, SA 25% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 9.1
Expected score
OKC 120.1 – 111.0 SA
Expected total
231.1
ThunderThe matchupSpurs
−303Our fair odds+303
120.1Expected points111.0
+1.48Power rating+0.13
122.3Points / game119.8
106.2Allowed / game114.1
49.4FG%48.2
37.43P%36.5
44.9Rebounds / game46.2
26−3Season record21−8
8−2Last 108−2
Ajay Mitchell · Jaylin Williams
Nikola Topic · Ousmane Dieng
Thomas SorberOutDavid Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Stanley Umude

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · SA chance
Our model fair75.2%24.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−30375%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+30325%————
SpreadOKC by 9.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.1
Over231.1our total————
Under231.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins bySA wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more49%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.1 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
CLuke Kornetstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·SA
Dec 22, 2025 vs MEM
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · concussion protocolOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAaron Wiggins · right adductor; strainQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
OKC·SA
+1.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
122.3
points / game
119.8
106.2
points allowed / game
114.1
26−3
season record
21−8
14−1
home record
10−2
12−2
away record
11−6
W1
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
8−2
49.4
FG%
48.2
37.4
3P%
36.5
44.9
rebounds / game
46.2
26.0
assists / game
26.1
12.6
turnovers / game
14.4
52.3
points in paint / game
50.2

Rating Trend

OKC · SA · 56 days
Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Dec 13, 2025at OKCSA 111 − 109
Mar 2, 2025at SAOKC 146 − 132
Nov 19, 2024at SASA 110 − 104
Oct 30, 2024at OKCOKC 105 − 93
Apr 10, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 89
Feb 29, 2024at SASA 132 − 118
Jan 24, 2024at SAOKC 140 − 114
Nov 14, 2023at OKCOKC 123 − 87
Mar 12, 2023at SAOKC 102 − 90
Dec 27, 2022at OKCOKC 130 − 114

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W
Dec 7, 2025at UTAH131 − 101W
Dec 5, 2025vs DAL132 − 111W
Dec 2, 2025at GS124 − 112W
Nov 30, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L
Dec 13, 2025at OKC111 − 109W
Dec 10, 2025at LAL132 − 119W
Dec 8, 2025at NO135 − 132W
Dec 5, 2025at CLE117 − 130L
Dec 3, 2025at ORL114 − 112W
Dec 2, 2025vs MEM126 − 119W