bayesRatings

Mavericks at Thunder

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 8:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final DAL 111 – OKC 132
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL27212637111
OKC27364128132
Team box
DAL·OKC
41-86
field goals
47-84
16-37
3-pointers
12-30
13-20
free throws
26-28
35
rebounds
43
28
assists
30
12
turnovers
6
38
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC293356
Jaden HardyDAL202322
Naji MarshallDAL271812
Cooper FlaggDAL291622
Jalen WilliamsOKC241585
Chet HolmgrenOKC231581

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +32
DAL +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 32 · DAL 3lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 13%, OKC 87% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 16.9
Expected score
OKC 121.6 – 104.7 DAL
Expected total
226.3
MavericksThe matchupThunder
+665Our fair odds−665
104.7Expected points121.6
−0.23Power rating+1.46
111.4Points / game122.3
115.7Allowed / game107.0
45.2FG%49.3
33.73P%37.0
44.9Rebounds / game44.8
8−15Season record21−1
5−5Last 1010−0
Daniel Gafford · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving
P.J. WashingtonOut (5 each)Alex Caruso · Isaiah Hartenstein
Luguentz Dort · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · OKC chance
Our model fair13.1%86.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+66513%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−66587%————
SpreadOKC by 16.9
DALDallas Mavericks+16.9our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−16.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 16.9 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 53 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← DAL wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more82%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more71%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more56%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·OKC
Dec 3, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Dec 2, 2025 at GS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALP.J. Washington · right ankle; sprainOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right quad; contusionOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right adductor; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayProbable
OKCChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
DAL·OKC
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+1.46
111.4
points / game
122.3
115.7
points allowed / game
107.0
8−15
season record
21−1
5−9
home record
10−0
3−6
away record
11−1
W3
streak
W13
5−5
last 10
10−0
45.2
FG%
49.3
33.7
3P%
37.0
44.9
rebounds / game
44.8
24.7
assists / game
26.1
15.8
turnovers / game
12.8
48.3
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

DAL · OKC · 38 days
Dallas MavericksOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 3−7
Oct 27, 2025at DALOKC 101 − 94
Jan 23, 2025at OKCDAL 121 − 115
Jan 17, 2025at DALDAL 106 − 98
Dec 10, 2024at OKCOKC 118 − 104
Nov 17, 2024at OKCDAL 121 − 119
May 18, 2024at DALDAL 117 − 116post
May 15, 2024at OKCDAL 104 − 92post
May 13, 2024at DALOKC 100 − 96post
May 11, 2024at DALDAL 105 − 101post
May 9, 2024at OKCDAL 119 − 110post

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 3, 2025vs MIA118 − 108W
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W
Nov 28, 2025at LAL119 − 129L
Nov 24, 2025at MIA102 − 106L
Nov 22, 2025vs MEM96 − 102L
Nov 21, 2025vs NO118 − 115W
Nov 19, 2025vs NY111 − 113L
Nov 17, 2025at MIN96 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs POR138 − 133W

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Dec 2, 2025at GS124 − 112W
Nov 30, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W
Nov 21, 2025at UTAH144 − 112W
Nov 19, 2025vs SAC113 − 99W
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W