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Thunder at Timberwolves

NBA · Friday, Dec 19 · 8:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final OKC 107 – MIN 112
← NBA / Dec 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC33183422107
MIN23253529112
Team box
OKC·MIN
34-92
field goals
33-88
11-39
3-pointers
13-37
28-30
free throws
33-47
52
rebounds
57
16
assists
20
12
turnovers
13
40
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC373557
Anthony EdwardsMIN4126123
Julius RandleMIN321985
Jalen WilliamsOKC321772
Naz ReidMIN311562
Donte DiVincenzoMIN331541

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +12
OKC +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 7 · OKC 12lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 66%, MIN 34% · Updated Dec 19, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 4.0
Expected score
OKC 114.4 – 110.4 MIN
Expected total
224.8
ThunderThe matchupTimberwolves
−194Our fair odds+194
114.4Expected points110.4
+1.50Power rating+0.61
123.0Points / game119.4
106.1Allowed / game114.6
49.9FG%48.4
37.73P%37.6
44.6Rebounds / game43.9
25−2Season record17−10
9−1Last 107−3
Chris Youngblood · Jaylin Williams
Nikola Topic · Thomas SorberOut (4 each)Enrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Mike Conley · Rocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MIN chance
Our model fair66.0%34.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−19466%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+19434%————
SpreadOKC by 4.0
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−4our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+4our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.8
Over224.8our total————
Under224.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 4.0 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMIN wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more51%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more36%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.8 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MIN
Dec 18, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Dec 17, 2025 vs MEM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 19, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAaron Wiggins · right adductor; sorenessQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINMike Conley · right achilles; tendinopathyOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right foot; injury maintenanceQuestionable
MINJaylen Clark · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
OKC·MIN
+1.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
123.0
points / game
119.4
106.1
points allowed / game
114.6
25−2
season record
17−10
13−1
home record
9−5
12−1
away record
8−5
W1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
7−3
49.9
FG%
48.4
37.7
3P%
37.6
44.6
rebounds / game
43.9
26.6
assists / game
26.6
12.6
turnovers / game
15.0
52.6
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

OKC · MIN · 52 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Nov 26, 2025at OKCOKC 113 − 105
May 28, 2025at OKCOKC 124 − 94post
May 26, 2025at MINOKC 128 − 126post
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 143 − 101post
May 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 103post
May 20, 2025at OKCOKC 114 − 88post
Feb 24, 2025at OKCMIN 131 − 128
Feb 23, 2025at MINOKC 130 − 123
Feb 13, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 101
Dec 31, 2024at OKCOKC 113 − 105

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W
Dec 7, 2025at UTAH131 − 101W
Dec 5, 2025vs DAL132 − 111W
Dec 2, 2025at GS124 − 112W
Nov 30, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W
Nov 30, 2025vs SA125 − 112W
Nov 29, 2025vs BOS119 − 115W
Nov 26, 2025at OKC105 − 113L