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Thunder at Jazz

NBA · Sunday, Dec 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final OKC 131 – UTAH 101
← NBA / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC45293225131
UTAH20282330101
Team box
OKC·UTAH
51-88
field goals
40-85
21-42
3-pointers
12-36
8-18
free throws
9-12
44
rebounds
37
32
assists
25
14
turnovers
17
52
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen WilliamsOKC252538
Chet HolmgrenOKC232591
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH3621102
Walter Clayton Jr.UTAH292029
Taylor HendricksUTAH252051
Aaron WigginsOKC201931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +42
OKC +42
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 1 · OKC 42lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 88%, UTAH 12% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 17.7
Expected score
OKC 127.3 – 109.7 UTAH
Expected total
237.0
ThunderThe matchupJazz
−750Our fair odds+750
127.3Expected points109.7
+1.46Power rating−0.84
122.7Points / game118.4
107.1Allowed / game125.6
49.6FG%45.4
37.13P%34.4
44.7Rebounds / game45.5
22−1Season record8−14
10−0Last 104−6
Alex Caruso · Isaiah Hartenstein
Isaiah Joe · Luguentz Dort
Nikola TopicOutElijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Walker Kessler

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair88.2%11.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−75088%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+75012%————
SpreadOKC by 17.7
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17.7our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+17.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.0
Over237.0our total————
Under237.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 17.7 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%
← OKC wins byUTAH wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more87%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more74%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more56%
Within 5 points either way11%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.0 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·UTAH
Dec 5, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 5, 2025 at NY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 7, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right quad; contusionOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; sorenessOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right adductor; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · left elbow; bursitisOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayProbable
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
OKC·UTAH
+1.46
rating (0 = average)
−0.84
122.7
points / game
118.4
107.1
points allowed / game
125.6
22−1
season record
8−14
11−0
home record
6−6
11−1
away record
2−8
W14
streak
L1
10−0
last 10
4−6
49.6
FG%
45.4
37.1
3P%
34.4
44.7
rebounds / game
45.5
26.3
assists / game
29.7
12.5
turnovers / game
16.5
52.5
points in paint / game
48.9

Rating Trend

OKC · UTAH · 40 days
Oklahoma City ThunderUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 1−9
Nov 21, 2025at UTAHOKC 144 − 112
Apr 11, 2025at UTAHOKC 145 − 111
Feb 21, 2025at UTAHOKC 130 − 107
Jan 22, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 114
Dec 3, 2024at OKCOKC 133 − 106
Mar 20, 2024at OKCOKC 119 − 107
Feb 6, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 117
Jan 18, 2024at UTAHOKC 134 − 129
Dec 11, 2023at OKCOKC 134 − 120
Apr 6, 2023at UTAHOKC 114 − 98

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Dec 5, 2025vs DAL132 − 111W
Dec 2, 2025at GS124 − 112W
Nov 30, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W
Nov 21, 2025at UTAH144 − 112W
Nov 19, 2025vs SAC113 − 99W
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 5, 2025at NY112 − 146L
Dec 4, 2025at BKN123 − 110W
Dec 1, 2025vs HOU133 − 125W
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU101 − 129L
Nov 28, 2025vs SAC128 − 119W
Nov 24, 2025at GS117 − 134L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAL106 − 108L
Nov 21, 2025vs OKC112 − 144L
Nov 18, 2025at LAL126 − 140L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI150 − 147W