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Grizzlies at Timberwolves

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final MEM 116 – MIN 110
← NBA / Dec 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM29322728116
MIN27352127110
Team box
MEM·MIN
42-96
field goals
39-98
11-34
3-pointers
13-44
21-25
free throws
19-27
54
rebounds
52
23
assists
26
18
turnovers
18
50
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM3328123
Julius RandleMIN352153
Jock LandaleMEM3020103
Donte DiVincenzoMIN3719114
Jaylen WellsMEM311742
Rudy GobertMIN3516164

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +9
MEM +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 9 · MEM 8lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 32%, MIN 68% · Updated Dec 17, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 7.2
Expected score
MIN 117.9 – 110.8 MEM
Expected total
228.7
GrizzliesThe matchupTimberwolves
+211Our fair odds−211
110.8Expected points117.9
+0.07Power rating+0.61
114.3Points / game119.8
115.4Allowed / game114.5
45.2FG%48.7
34.53P%37.9
46.1Rebounds / game43.5
12−14Season record17−9
7−3Last 107−3
Cam Spencer · GG Jackson
Javon Small · John Konchar
Scotty Pippen Jr.OutEnrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Mike Conley · Rocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · MIN chance
Our model fair32.1%67.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+21132%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−21168%————
SpreadMIN by 7.2
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+7.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 7.2 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%
← MEM wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more59%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more44%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
FBrandon Clarkestarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GBones Hylandstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·MIN
Dec 15, 2025 at LAC
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 17, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMCam Spencer · personal reasonsOut
MEMGG Jackson · g league - on assignmentOut
MEMJavon Small · left toe; turf toeOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; uclOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMJa Morant · surgery recovery left ankle; sprainDoubtful
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINMike Conley · right achilles; tendinopathyOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right foot; injury maintenanceQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
MEM·MIN
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
114.3
points / game
119.8
115.4
points allowed / game
114.5
12−14
season record
17−9
6−7
home record
9−4
6−7
away record
8−5
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
7−3
45.2
FG%
48.7
34.5
3P%
37.9
46.1
rebounds / game
43.5
29.0
assists / game
26.6
14.7
turnovers / game
14.8
48.9
points in paint / game
51.1

Rating Trend

MEM · MIN · 50 days
Memphis GrizzliesMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Apr 10, 2025at MEMMIN 141 − 125
Jan 20, 2025at MEMMEM 108 − 106
Jan 11, 2025at MINMEM 127 − 125
Feb 28, 2024at MINMIN 110 − 101
Jan 18, 2024at MINMIN 118 − 103
Dec 8, 2023at MEMMIN 127 − 103
Nov 26, 2023at MEMMIN 119 − 97
Feb 10, 2023at MEMMEM 128 − 107
Jan 27, 2023at MINMIN 111 − 100
Nov 30, 2022at MINMIN 109 − 101

MEM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025vs UTAH126 − 130L
Dec 7, 2025vs POR119 − 96W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAC107 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 30, 2025at SAC115 − 107W
Nov 28, 2025at LAC112 − 107W
Nov 26, 2025at NO133 − 128W
Nov 24, 2025vs DEN115 − 125L
Nov 22, 2025at DAL102 − 96W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W
Nov 30, 2025vs SA125 − 112W
Nov 29, 2025vs BOS119 − 115W
Nov 26, 2025at OKC105 − 113L
Nov 24, 2025at SAC112 − 117L