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Grizzlies at Thunder

NBA · Monday, Dec 22 · 8:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final MEM 103 – OKC 119
← NBA / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM28261930103
OKC31361735119
Team box
MEM·OKC
34-83
field goals
46-94
18-41
3-pointers
15-39
17-23
free throws
12-14
46
rebounds
46
26
assists
20
23
turnovers
13
28
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC3631108
Jalen WilliamsOKC342462
Cedric CowardMEM251686
Ajay MitchellOKC221692
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeMEM211634
Cam SpencerMEM351458

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +18
MEM +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 18 · MEM 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 16%, OKC 84% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 15.4
Expected score
OKC 122.5 – 107.1 MEM
Expected total
229.7
GrizzliesThe matchupThunder
+511Our fair odds−511
107.1Expected points122.5
+0.07Power rating+1.50
114.7Points / game122.5
115.7Allowed / game106.4
45.1FG%49.4
34.43P%37.4
46.4Rebounds / game44.9
13−15Season record25−3
7−3Last 108−2
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Javon Small · John Konchar
Scotty Pippen Jr.Out (5 each)Alex Caruso · Chet Holmgren
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jaylin Williams
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · OKC chance
Our model fair16.4%83.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+51116%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−51184%————
SpreadOKC by 15.4
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+15.4our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−15.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.7
Over229.7our total————
Under229.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 15.4 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 53 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 52 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 51 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 50 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← MEM wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more79%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more51%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.7 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CBranden Carlsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·OKC
Dec 20, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Dec 19, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 22, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMJavon Small · left toe; turf toeOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left knee; sorenessOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right middle finger; sprainOut
OKCChet Holmgren · n/a; illnessOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; sorenessOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAaron Wiggins · right adductor; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
MEM·OKC
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+1.50
114.7
points / game
122.5
115.7
points allowed / game
106.4
13−15
season record
25−3
6−8
home record
13−1
7−7
away record
12−2
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
8−2
45.1
FG%
49.4
34.4
3P%
37.4
46.4
rebounds / game
44.9
28.9
assists / game
26.2
14.8
turnovers / game
12.6
49.0
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

MEM · OKC · 55 days
Memphis GrizzliesOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 10−0
Nov 9, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 100
Apr 26, 2025at MEMOKC 117 − 115post
Apr 24, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 108post
Apr 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 99post
Apr 20, 2025at OKCOKC 131 − 80post
Mar 27, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 104
Mar 5, 2025at MEMOKC 120 − 103
Feb 8, 2025at MEMOKC 125 − 112
Dec 29, 2024at OKCOKC 130 − 106
Mar 16, 2024at MEMOKC 118 − 112

MEM · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025vs UTAH126 − 130L
Dec 7, 2025vs POR119 − 96W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAC107 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 30, 2025at SAC115 − 107W
Nov 28, 2025at LAC112 − 107W
Nov 26, 2025at NO133 − 128W

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W
Dec 7, 2025at UTAH131 − 101W
Dec 5, 2025vs DAL132 − 111W
Dec 2, 2025at GS124 − 112W
Nov 30, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W