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Heat at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Dec 26 · 6:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MIA 126 – ATL 111
← NBA / Dec 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA32312736126
ATL32193327111
Team box
MIA·ATL
49-104
field goals
40-85
11-36
3-pointers
12-36
17-18
free throws
19-21
52
rebounds
42
29
assists
26
12
turnovers
21
66
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trae YoungATL323026
Norman PowellMIA332575
Jalen JohnsonATL3824910
Pelle LarssonMIA302165
Andrew WigginsMIA321883
Kel'el WareMIA3316130

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 2 · MIA 17lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Dec 26, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 0.2
Expected score
MIA 118.7 – 118.5 ATL
Expected total
237.2
HeatThe matchupHawks
+109Our fair odds−109
118.7Expected points118.5
+0.00Power rating−0.14
119.2Points / game118.8
117.6Allowed / game119.6
47.0FG%48.3
36.33P%36.5
45.4Rebounds / game41.6
15−15Season record15−16
2−8Last 102−8
Bam Adebayo · Jahmir Young
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOutEli John Ndiaye · Kristaps Porzingis
N'Faly Dante

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+10948%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−10952%————
SpreadMIA by 0.2
MIAMiami Heat−0.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.2
Over237.2our total————
Under237.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 0.2 expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more40%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more27%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.2 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Dec 23, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Dec 23, 2025 vs CHI
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 26, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIABam Adebayo · lower back; sorenessOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLMalik Williams · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
MIA·ATL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
119.2
points / game
118.8
117.6
points allowed / game
119.6
15−15
season record
15−16
10−5
home record
5−9
5−10
away record
10−7
L3
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
2−8
47.0
FG%
48.3
36.3
3P%
36.5
45.4
rebounds / game
41.6
28.3
assists / game
31.1
14.2
turnovers / game
15.2
54.6
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 58 days
Miami HeatAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 112
Feb 26, 2025at MIAMIA 131 − 109
Feb 24, 2025at ATLATL 98 − 86
Dec 28, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 110
Apr 9, 2024at ATLMIA 117 − 111
Jan 19, 2024at MIAATL 109 − 108
Dec 22, 2023at MIAMIA 122 − 113
Nov 11, 2023at ATLMIA 117 − 109
Mar 6, 2023at MIAMIA 130 − 128
Mar 4, 2023at MIAMIA 117 − 109

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W

ATL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W
Dec 5, 2025vs DEN133 − 134L
Dec 3, 2025vs LAC92 − 115L
Dec 1, 2025at DET98 − 99L