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Raptors at Heat

NBA · Monday, Dec 15 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final TOR 106 – MIA 96
← NBA / Dec 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR23232832106
MIA2230251996
Team box
TOR·MIA
42-88
field goals
35-83
16-40
3-pointers
9-31
6-9
free throws
17-23
45
rebounds
45
33
assists
20
21
turnovers
19
44
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR382855
Bam AdebayoMIA3320102
Norman PowellMIA342034
Scottie BarnesTOR3217106
Immanuel QuickleyTOR341544
Davion MitchellMIA321244

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +11
TOR +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 11 · TOR 11lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 37%, MIA 63% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 4.4
Expected score
MIA 115.6 – 111.2 TOR
Expected total
226.8
RaptorsThe matchupHeat
+168Our fair odds−168
111.2Expected points115.6
−0.22Power rating+0.07
115.8Points / game121.7
113.9Allowed / game118.2
48.5FG%47.9
36.13P%36.5
42.3Rebounds / game45.4
15−11Season record14−11
4−6Last 105−5
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · RJ BarrettOutPelle Larsson · Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIA chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+16837%————
MIAMiami Heat−16863%————
SpreadMIA by 4.4
TORToronto Raptors+4.4our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 4.4 expected
Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more52%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more37%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GOchai Agbajistarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
FSimone Fontecchiostarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIA
Dec 9, 2025 vs NY
last game
Dec 9, 2025 at ORL
5 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 14, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprainOut
TORJamison Battle · left ankle; sprainProbable
Miami Heat
MIAPelle Larsson · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · left ankle; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
TOR·MIA
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
115.8
points / game
121.7
113.9
points allowed / game
118.2
15−11
season record
14−11
8−6
home record
10−3
7−5
away record
4−8
L4
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
5−5
48.5
FG%
47.9
36.1
3P%
36.5
42.3
rebounds / game
45.4
29.4
assists / game
29.4
14.6
turnovers / game
14.0
53.4
points in paint / game
56.7

Rating Trend

TOR · MIA · 48 days
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Feb 21, 2025at TORMIA 120 − 111
Dec 12, 2024at MIAMIA 114 − 104
Dec 1, 2024at TORTOR 119 − 116
Nov 29, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 111
Apr 14, 2024at MIAMIA 118 − 103
Apr 12, 2024at MIAMIA 125 − 103
Jan 17, 2024at TORTOR 121 − 97
Dec 6, 2023at TORMIA 112 − 103
Mar 28, 2023at TORTOR 106 − 92
Nov 16, 2022at TORTOR 112 − 104

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Dec 9, 2025vs NY101 − 117L
Dec 7, 2025vs BOS113 − 121L
Dec 5, 2025vs CHA86 − 111L
Dec 4, 2025vs LAL120 − 123L
Dec 2, 2025vs POR121 − 118W
Nov 30, 2025at NY94 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025at CHA111 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025vs IND97 − 95W
Nov 24, 2025vs CLE110 − 99W
Nov 23, 2025vs BKN119 − 109W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W