bayesRatings

Knicks at Raptors

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 9 · 7:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final NY 117 – TOR 101
← NBA / Dec 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY35342523117
TOR39132722101
Team box
NY·TOR
42-80
field goals
39-90
16-35
3-pointers
11-38
17-28
free throws
12-18
48
rebounds
37
19
assists
28
14
turnovers
14
42
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY393534
Brandon IngramTOR393166
Josh HartNY362164
Jamal SheadTOR341838
Mikal BridgesNY361554
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3114161

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +24
NY +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 6 · NY 24lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 62%, TOR 38% · Updated Dec 9, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 3.9
Expected score
NY 115.0 – 111.1 TOR
Expected total
226.2
KnicksThe matchupRaptors
−164Our fair odds+164
115.0Expected points111.1
+0.51Power rating−0.22
120.7Points / game116.4
112.4Allowed / game113.8
47.4FG%48.7
37.73P%36.4
46.0Rebounds / game42.6
16−7Season record15−10
8−2Last 105−5
Landry Shamet · Miles McBride
Pacome DadietOutRJ Barrett

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · TOR chance
Our model fair62.1%37.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−16462%————
TORToronto Raptors+16438%————
SpreadNY by 3.9
NYNew York Knicks−3.9our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.2
Over226.2our total————
Under226.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 3.9 expected
New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%
← NY wins byTOR wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more51%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more36%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.2 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Toronto Raptors
GOchai Agbajistarted
GJamal Sheadstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·TOR
Dec 7, 2025 vs ORL
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 9, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYMiles McBride · left ankle; sprainOut
NYPacome Dadiet · left ankle; sprainOut
NYKarl-Anthony Towns · left calf; tightnessQuestionable
Toronto Raptors
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprainOut
TORJamison Battle · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
TORImmanuel Quickley · illness; illnessQuestionable
TORJamal Shead · right quad; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
NY·TOR
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
120.7
points / game
116.4
112.4
points allowed / game
113.8
16−7
season record
15−10
13−1
home record
8−5
3−6
away record
7−5
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
5−5
47.4
FG%
48.7
37.7
3P%
36.4
46.0
rebounds / game
42.6
27.3
assists / game
29.5
13.3
turnovers / game
14.6
48.3
points in paint / game
53.8

Rating Trend

NY · TOR · 42 days
New York KnicksToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 1−9
Nov 30, 2025at NYNY 116 − 94
Feb 4, 2025at TORNY 121 − 115
Jan 8, 2025at NYNY 112 − 98
Dec 23, 2024at NYNY 139 − 125
Dec 9, 2024at TORNY 113 − 108
Mar 27, 2024at TORNY 145 − 101
Jan 20, 2024at NYNY 126 − 100
Dec 11, 2023at NYNY 136 − 130
Dec 1, 2023at TORNY 119 − 106
Jan 22, 2023at TORTOR 125 − 116

NY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 7, 2025vs ORL106 − 100W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH146 − 112W
Dec 3, 2025vs CHA119 − 104W
Dec 2, 2025at BOS117 − 123L
Nov 30, 2025vs TOR116 − 94W
Nov 28, 2025vs MIL118 − 109W
Nov 26, 2025at CHA129 − 101W
Nov 24, 2025at BKN113 − 100W
Nov 22, 2025at ORL121 − 133L
Nov 19, 2025at DAL113 − 111W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 7, 2025vs BOS113 − 121L
Dec 5, 2025vs CHA86 − 111L
Dec 4, 2025vs LAL120 − 123L
Dec 2, 2025vs POR121 − 118W
Nov 30, 2025at NY94 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025at CHA111 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025vs IND97 − 95W
Nov 24, 2025vs CLE110 − 99W
Nov 23, 2025vs BKN119 − 109W
Nov 21, 2025vs WSH140 − 110W