bayesRatings

Heat at Knicks

NBA · Sunday, Dec 21 · 5:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final MIA 125 – NY 132
← NBA / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA37253726125
NY30363927132
Team box
MIA·NY
41-87
field goals
47-85
17-35
3-pointers
20-38
26-35
free throws
18-21
45
rebounds
36
26
assists
28
11
turnovers
13
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY384738
Kel'el WareMIA3528190
Mikal BridgesNY402424
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA342305
Norman PowellMIA352243
OG AnunobyNY341823

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +11
MIA +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 11 · MIA 10lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 32%, NY 68% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 6.9
Expected score
NY 116.2 – 109.3 MIA
Expected total
225.6
HeatThe matchupKnicks
+208Our fair odds−208
109.3Expected points116.2
+0.01Power rating+0.53
120.0Points / game120.4
117.3Allowed / game112.4
47.3FG%47.9
36.13P%37.6
45.6Rebounds / game46.8
15−13Season record20−8
3−7Last 108−2
Jahmir Young · Nikola Jovic
Pelle Larsson · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOutLandry Shamet · Miles McBride

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NY chance
Our model fair32.4%67.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+20832%————
NYNew York Knicks−20868%————
SpreadNY by 6.9
MIAMiami Heat+6.9our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our total————
Under225.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 6.9 expected
Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 20 points: <1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%
← MIA wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more59%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more43%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NY
Dec 19, 2025 at BOS
last game
Dec 19, 2025 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 20, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIANikola Jovic · right elbow; contusion/lacerationOut
MIAPelle Larsson · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
New York Knicks
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYMiles McBride · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
MIA·NY
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
120.0
points / game
120.4
117.3
points allowed / game
112.4
15−13
season record
20−8
10−4
home record
14−2
5−9
away record
6−6
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
8−2
47.3
FG%
47.9
36.1
3P%
37.6
45.6
rebounds / game
46.8
28.8
assists / game
27.1
14.2
turnovers / game
13.4
55.4
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

MIA · NY · 54 days
Miami HeatNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 6−4
Nov 17, 2025at MIAMIA 115 − 113
Nov 14, 2025at NYNY 140 − 132
Oct 26, 2025at MIAMIA 115 − 107
Mar 17, 2025at NYNY 116 − 95
Mar 2, 2025at MIANY 116 − 112
Oct 30, 2024at MIANY 116 − 107
Apr 2, 2024at MIAMIA 109 − 99
Jan 27, 2024at NYNY 125 − 109
Nov 24, 2023at NYNY 100 − 98
May 12, 2023at MIAMIA 96 − 92post

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W

NY · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 19, 2025vs PHI107 − 116L
Dec 18, 2025at IND114 − 113W
Dec 16, 2025vs SA124 − 113W
Dec 13, 2025at ORL132 − 120W
Dec 9, 2025at TOR117 − 101W
Dec 7, 2025vs ORL106 − 100W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH146 − 112W
Dec 3, 2025vs CHA119 − 104W
Dec 2, 2025at BOS117 − 123L
Nov 30, 2025vs TOR116 − 94W