bayesRatings

76ers at Knicks

NBA · Friday, Dec 19 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final PHI 116 – NY 107
← NBA / Dec 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI29283128116
NY29302820107
Team box
PHI·NY
40-88
field goals
39-88
17-41
3-pointers
8-32
19-21
free throws
21-25
36
rebounds
57
21
assists
26
11
turnovers
18
36
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI383029
VJ EdgecombePHI382334
Jalen BrunsonNY372269
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3522111
Mitchell RobinsonNY2621161
Mikal BridgesNY372175

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +9
PHI +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 6 · PHI 9lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 26%, NY 74% · Updated Dec 19, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 9.5
Expected score
NY 118.0 – 108.5 PHI
Expected total
226.5
76ersThe matchupKnicks
+286Our fair odds−286
108.5Expected points118.0
−0.31Power rating+0.53
116.8Points / game120.9
115.8Allowed / game112.3
45.2FG%48.1
36.33P%38.0
45.5Rebounds / game46.4
14−11Season record20−7
5−5Last 109−1
Hunter Sallis · Joel Embiid
Johni Broome · Kelly Oubre Jr.
Trendon WatfordOutLandry Shamet · Miles McBride
Pacome Dadiet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NY chance
Our model fair25.9%74.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+28626%————
NYNew York Knicks−28674%————
SpreadNY by 9.5
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+9.5our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−9.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 9.5 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 52 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 22 points: 2%New York Knicks by 23 points: 2%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: 1%New York Knicks by 37 points: 1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%New York Knicks by 50 points: <1%New York Knicks by 51 points: <1%New York Knicks by 52 points: <1%
← PHI wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more65%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more50%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NY
Dec 14, 2025 at ATL
last game
Dec 18, 2025 at IND
4 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 19, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIHunter Sallis · g league - two-wayOut
PHIJoel Embiid · n/a; illness; right knee injury managementOut
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
New York Knicks
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYMiles McBride · left ankle; sprainOut
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
PHI·NY
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
116.8
points / game
120.9
115.8
points allowed / game
112.3
14−11
season record
20−7
8−7
home record
14−1
6−4
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W7
5−5
last 10
9−1
45.2
FG%
48.1
36.3
3P%
38.0
45.5
rebounds / game
46.4
25.4
assists / game
27.1
14.5
turnovers / game
13.3
48.2
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

PHI · NY · 52 days
Philadelphia 76ersNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 8−2
Apr 1, 2025at NYNY 105 − 91
Feb 26, 2025at NYNY 110 − 105
Jan 15, 2025at PHINY 125 − 119
Nov 12, 2024at PHINY 111 − 99
May 2, 2024at PHINY 118 − 115post
Apr 30, 2024at NYPHI 112 − 106post
Apr 28, 2024at PHINY 97 − 92post
Apr 25, 2024at PHIPHI 125 − 114post
Apr 22, 2024at NYNY 104 − 101post
Apr 20, 2024at NYNY 111 − 104post

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at ATL117 − 120L
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH121 − 102W
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL134 − 142L
Nov 28, 2025at BKN115 − 103W
Nov 25, 2025vs ORL103 − 144L
Nov 23, 2025vs MIA117 − 127L

NY · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Dec 18, 2025at IND114 − 113W
Dec 16, 2025vs SA124 − 113W
Dec 13, 2025at ORL132 − 120W
Dec 9, 2025at TOR117 − 101W
Dec 7, 2025vs ORL106 − 100W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH146 − 112W
Dec 3, 2025vs CHA119 − 104W
Dec 2, 2025at BOS117 − 123L
Nov 30, 2025vs TOR116 − 94W
Nov 28, 2025vs MIL118 − 109W