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Heat at Celtics

NBA · Friday, Dec 19 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final MIA 116 – BOS 129
← NBA / Dec 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA29293127116
BOS30283437129
Team box
MIA·BOS
40-102
field goals
44-82
19-49
3-pointers
21-43
17-24
free throws
20-24
47
rebounds
46
27
assists
25
13
turnovers
16
36
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Derrick WhiteBOS363356
Jaylen BrownBOS353097
Kel'el WareMIA2824142
Norman PowellMIA341843
Kasparas JakucionisMIA361764
Bam AdebayoMIA3616104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +19
MIA +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 19 · MIA 8lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 28%, BOS 72% · Updated Dec 19, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 9.5
Expected score
BOS 115.2 – 105.8 MIA
Expected total
221.0
HeatThe matchupCeltics
+261Our fair odds−261
105.8Expected points115.2
+0.01Power rating+0.76
120.2Points / game116.2
116.9Allowed / game110.8
47.6FG%47.1
36.03P%36.3
45.6Rebounds / game43.4
15−12Season record15−11
4−6Last 107−3
Jahmir Young · Nikola Jovic
Pelle Larsson · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOutAmari Williams · Jayson Tatum
Max Shulga · Ron Harper Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · BOS chance
Our model fair27.7%72.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+26128%————
BOSBoston Celtics−26172%————
SpreadBOS by 9.5
MIAMiami Heat+9.5our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−9.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.0
Over221.0our total————
Under221.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 9.5 expected
Miami Heat by 52 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 20 points: <1%Miami Heat by 19 points: <1%Miami Heat by 18 points: <1%Miami Heat by 17 points: <1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 1%Miami Heat by 9 points: 1%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%
← MIA wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more65%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more50%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.0 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FJaime Jaquez Jr.started
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·BOS
Dec 18, 2025 at BKN
last game
Dec 15, 2025 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
3 days
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 19, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIANikola Jovic · right elbow; contusion/lacerationOut
MIAPelle Larsson · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
MIAAndrew Wiggins · lower back; painQuestionable
MIADavion Mitchell · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
MIA·BOS
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.76
120.2
points / game
116.2
116.9
points allowed / game
110.8
15−12
season record
15−11
10−4
home record
8−5
5−8
away record
7−6
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
7−3
47.6
FG%
47.1
36.0
3P%
36.3
45.6
rebounds / game
43.4
28.9
assists / game
24.1
14.2
turnovers / game
11.8
56.1
points in paint / game
42.5

Rating Trend

MIA · BOS · 52 days
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Apr 2, 2025at BOSMIA 124 − 103
Mar 14, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 91
Feb 10, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 85
Dec 2, 2024at BOSBOS 108 − 89
May 1, 2024at BOSBOS 118 − 84post
Apr 29, 2024at MIABOS 102 − 88post
Apr 27, 2024at MIABOS 104 − 84post
Apr 24, 2024at BOSMIA 111 − 101post
Apr 21, 2024at BOSBOS 114 − 94post
Feb 11, 2024at MIABOS 110 − 106

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 15, 2025vs DET105 − 112L
Dec 11, 2025at MIL101 − 116L
Dec 7, 2025at TOR121 − 113W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAL126 − 105W
Dec 4, 2025at WSH146 − 101W
Dec 2, 2025vs NY123 − 117W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE117 − 115W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN115 − 119L
Nov 26, 2025vs DET117 − 114W
Nov 23, 2025vs ORL138 − 129W