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Celtics at Bucks

NBA · Thursday, Dec 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final BOS 101 – MIL 116
← NBA / Dec 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS35321321101
MIL29312729116
Team box
BOS·MIL
34-88
field goals
46-79
14-49
3-pointers
13-29
19-25
free throws
11-14
39
rebounds
40
18
assists
28
14
turnovers
16
28
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kyle KuzmaMIL313160
Jaylen BrownBOS293033
Bobby PortisMIL2627100
Jordan WalshBOS322080
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL32181013
Gary Trent Jr.MIL281321

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +21
BOS +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 21 · BOS 14lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 66%, MIL 34% · Updated Dec 11, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 5.4
Expected score
BOS 115.5 – 110.0 MIL
Expected total
225.5
CelticsThe matchupBucks
−198Our fair odds+198
115.5Expected points110.0
+0.86Power rating−0.06
117.2Points / game115.1
110.6Allowed / game118.0
47.5FG%49.2
37.03P%41.0
43.8Rebounds / game39.4
15−9Season record10−15
8−2Last 102−8
Amari Williams · Chris Boucher
Jayson Tatum · Max Shulga
Ron Harper Jr.OutAlex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Mark Sears · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIL chance
Our model fair66.4%33.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−19866%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+19834%————
SpreadBOS by 5.4
BOSBoston Celtics−5.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.5
Over225.5our total————
Under225.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 5.4 expected
Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMIL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more55%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more39%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

225.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIL
Dec 7, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 6, 2025 at DET
3 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 10, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · right hand; hairline fractureOut
BOSChris Boucher · illness; non-covidOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · right knee; sprainOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILAJ Green · left ac joint; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
BOS·MIL
+0.86
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
117.2
points / game
115.1
110.6
points allowed / game
118.0
15−9
season record
10−15
8−4
home record
7−7
7−5
away record
3−8
W5
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
2−8
47.5
FG%
49.2
37.0
3P%
41.0
43.8
rebounds / game
39.4
24.7
assists / game
27.0
11.7
turnovers / game
14.7
43.3
points in paint / game
45.7

Rating Trend

BOS · MIL · 44 days
Boston CelticsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 3−7
Dec 6, 2024at BOSBOS 111 − 105
Nov 10, 2024at MILBOS 113 − 107
Oct 28, 2024at BOSBOS 119 − 108
Apr 9, 2024at MILMIL 104 − 91
Mar 20, 2024at BOSBOS 122 − 119
Jan 11, 2024at MILMIL 135 − 102
Nov 22, 2023at BOSBOS 119 − 116
Mar 30, 2023at MILBOS 140 − 99
Feb 14, 2023at MILMIL 131 − 125
Dec 25, 2022at BOSBOS 139 − 118

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Dec 7, 2025at TOR121 − 113W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAL126 − 105W
Dec 4, 2025at WSH146 − 101W
Dec 2, 2025vs NY123 − 117W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE117 − 115W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN115 − 119L
Nov 26, 2025vs DET117 − 114W
Nov 23, 2025vs ORL138 − 129W
Nov 21, 2025vs BKN105 − 113L
Nov 18, 2025at BKN113 − 99W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025at MIA103 − 106L
Nov 24, 2025vs POR103 − 115L
Nov 22, 2025vs DET116 − 129L
Nov 20, 2025vs PHI114 − 123L