bayesRatings

Heat at Nets

NBA · Thursday, Dec 18 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final MIA 106 – BKN 95
← NBA / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA30242329106
BKN2722242295
Team box
MIA·BKN
41-89
field goals
38-98
9-28
3-pointers
11-49
15-19
free throws
8-11
51
rebounds
49
23
assists
24
14
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN342863
Norman PowellMIA332452
Kel'el WareMIA3022121
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA291951
Nic ClaxtonBKN3516128
Egor DeminBKN281421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +12
MIA +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 3 · MIA 12lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 63%, BKN 37% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 4.5
Expected score
MIA 112.0 – 107.5 BKN
Expected total
219.4
HeatThe matchupNets
−170Our fair odds+170
112.0Expected points107.5
+0.01Power rating−0.75
120.7Points / game110.2
117.7Allowed / game115.9
47.7FG%44.9
36.23P%34.9
45.4Rebounds / game40.0
14−12Season record7−18
4−6Last 104−6
Jahmir Young · Nikola Jovic
Pelle Larsson · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOut (5 each)Ben Saraf · Cam Thomas
E.J. Liddell · Haywood Highsmith
Nolan Traore

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · BKN chance
Our model fair63.0%37.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−17063%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+17037%————
SpreadMIA by 4.5
MIAMiami Heat−4.5our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.4
Over219.4our total————
Under219.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 4.5 expected
Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%
← MIA wins byBKN wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more52%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more37%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.4 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.569%
Total over 219.549%
Total over 229.530%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·BKN
Dec 15, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs MIL
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 17, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIANikola Jovic · right elbow; contusion/lacerationOut
MIAPelle Larsson · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNCam Thomas · left hamstring; strainOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNNolan Traore · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
MIA·BKN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.75
120.7
points / game
110.2
117.7
points allowed / game
115.9
14−12
season record
7−18
10−4
home record
3−10
4−8
away record
4−8
L5
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
47.7
FG%
44.9
36.2
3P%
34.9
45.4
rebounds / game
40.0
29.1
assists / game
25.7
14.2
turnovers / game
15.8
56.2
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

MIA · BKN · 51 days
Miami HeatBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 6−4
Feb 7, 2025at BKNBKN 102 − 86
Jan 25, 2025at BKNMIA 106 − 97
Dec 23, 2024at MIAMIA 110 − 95
Jan 15, 2024at BKNMIA 96 − 95
Nov 25, 2023at BKNBKN 112 − 97
Nov 16, 2023at MIAMIA 122 − 115
Nov 1, 2023at MIABKN 109 − 105
Mar 25, 2023at MIABKN 129 − 100
Feb 15, 2023at BKNBKN 116 − 105
Jan 8, 2023at MIABKN 102 − 101

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W

BKN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025vs MIL127 − 82W
Dec 12, 2025at DAL111 − 119L
Dec 6, 2025vs NO119 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs UTAH110 − 123L
Dec 3, 2025at CHI113 − 103W
Dec 1, 2025vs CHA116 − 103W
Nov 29, 2025at MIL99 − 116L
Nov 28, 2025vs PHI103 − 115L
Nov 24, 2025vs NY100 − 113L
Nov 23, 2025at TOR109 − 119L