bayesRatings

Pistons at Celtics

NBA · Monday, Dec 15 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final DET 112 – BOS 105
← NBA / Dec 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET25283227112
BOS33242424105
Team box
DET·BOS
41-89
field goals
38-82
13-36
3-pointers
10-39
17-25
free throws
19-27
39
rebounds
37
21
assists
16
11
turnovers
13
42
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS403487
Cade CunninghamDET3632410
Derrick WhiteBOS383161
Tobias HarrisDET321373
Caris LeVertDET191312
Payton PritchardBOS351245

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +12
DET +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 12 · DET 10lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 31%, BOS 69% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 8.2
Expected score
BOS 115.8 – 107.7 DET
Expected total
223.5
PistonsThe matchupCeltics
+224Our fair odds−224
107.7Expected points115.8
+0.28Power rating+0.86
119.6Points / game116.6
113.3Allowed / game110.8
48.8FG%47.2
35.63P%36.7
46.5Rebounds / game43.6
20−5Season record15−10
7−3Last 107−3
Bobi Klintman · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith · Wendell Moore Jr.OutJayson Tatum · Max Shulga
Ron Harper Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BOS chance
Our model fair30.9%69.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+22431%————
BOSBoston Celtics−22469%————
SpreadBOS by 8.2
DETDetroit Pistons+8.2our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.5
Over223.5our total————
Under223.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 8.2 expected
Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%
← DET wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more62%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more46%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.5 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BOS
Dec 12, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Dec 11, 2025 at MIL
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 14, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
DET·BOS
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.86
119.6
points / game
116.6
113.3
points allowed / game
110.8
20−5
season record
15−10
12−2
home record
8−4
8−3
away record
7−6
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
48.8
FG%
47.2
35.6
3P%
36.7
46.5
rebounds / game
43.6
26.4
assists / game
24.4
16.0
turnovers / game
11.8
57.7
points in paint / game
42.7

Rating Trend

DET · BOS · 48 days
Detroit PistonsBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Nov 26, 2025at BOSBOS 117 − 114
Oct 26, 2025at DETDET 119 − 113
Feb 26, 2025at DETDET 117 − 97
Dec 12, 2024at BOSBOS 123 − 99
Dec 4, 2024at BOSBOS 130 − 120
Oct 26, 2024at DETBOS 124 − 118
Mar 22, 2024at DETBOS 129 − 102
Mar 18, 2024at BOSBOS 119 − 94
Dec 28, 2023at BOSBOS 128 − 122
Feb 15, 2023at BOSBOS 127 − 109

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W
Dec 3, 2025at MIL109 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025vs ATL99 − 98W
Nov 29, 2025at MIA138 − 135W
Nov 28, 2025vs ORL109 − 112L
Nov 26, 2025at BOS114 − 117L
Nov 24, 2025at IND122 − 117W
Nov 22, 2025at MIL129 − 116W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 11, 2025at MIL101 − 116L
Dec 7, 2025at TOR121 − 113W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAL126 − 105W
Dec 4, 2025at WSH146 − 101W
Dec 2, 2025vs NY123 − 117W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE117 − 115W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN115 − 119L
Nov 26, 2025vs DET117 − 114W
Nov 23, 2025vs ORL138 − 129W
Nov 21, 2025vs BKN105 − 113L