bayesRatings

76ers at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Dec 28 · 2:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final PHI 104 – OKC 129
← NBA / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI29332418104
OKC32323827129
Team box
PHI·OKC
35-83
field goals
50-87
17-43
3-pointers
10-28
17-21
free throws
19-25
38
rebounds
35
21
assists
27
23
turnovers
14
34
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Chet HolmgrenOKC292991
Tyrese MaxeyPHI362825
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC292725
Aaron WigginsOKC231533
Jalen WilliamsOKC321446
Quentin GrimesPHI221323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +27
PHI +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 27 · PHI 2lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 13%, OKC 87% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 17.7
Expected score
OKC 121.9 – 104.2 PHI
Expected total
226.2
76ersThe matchupThunder
+686Our fair odds−686
104.2Expected points121.9
−0.25Power rating+1.48
116.1Points / game121.3
115.2Allowed / game107.4
44.7FG%49.2
35.63P%37.1
45.1Rebounds / game44.7
16−13Season record26−5
6−4Last 106−4
Joel Embiid · Johni Broome
Kelly Oubre Jr. · MarJon Beauchamp
Trendon WatfordOutJaylin Williams · Nikola Topic
Ousmane Dieng · Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · OKC chance
Our model fair12.7%87.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+68613%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−68687%————
SpreadOKC by 17.7
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+17.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.2
Over226.2our total————
Under226.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 17.7 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 53 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 52 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← PHI wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more84%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more73%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more59%
Within 5 points either way13%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.2 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·OKC
Dec 26, 2025 at CHI
last game
Dec 25, 2025 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 28, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right ankle; sprain; right knee injury managementOut
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
PHI·OKC
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+1.48
116.1
points / game
121.3
115.2
points allowed / game
107.4
16−13
season record
26−5
9−8
home record
14−2
7−5
away record
12−3
L2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
44.7
FG%
49.2
35.6
3P%
37.1
45.1
rebounds / game
44.7
24.8
assists / game
25.8
14.1
turnovers / game
12.5
47.9
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

PHI · OKC · 60 days
Philadelphia 76ersOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · OKC 3−5
Mar 19, 2025at OKCOKC 133 − 100
Jan 14, 2025at PHIOKC 118 − 102
Apr 2, 2024at PHIPHI 109 − 105
Nov 25, 2023at OKCPHI 127 − 123
Jan 12, 2023at PHIOKC 133 − 114
Dec 31, 2022at OKCPHI 115 − 96
Feb 11, 2022at PHIPHI 100 − 87
Oct 24, 2021at OKCPHI 115 − 103

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 26, 2025at CHI102 − 109L
Dec 23, 2025vs BKN106 − 114L
Dec 20, 2025vs DAL121 − 114W
Dec 19, 2025at NY116 − 107W
Dec 14, 2025at ATL117 − 120L
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH121 − 102W

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W
Dec 7, 2025at UTAH131 − 101W
Dec 5, 2025vs DAL132 − 111W
Dec 2, 2025at GS124 − 112W