bayesRatings

76ers at Bulls

NBA · Friday, Dec 26 · 6:30 PM CT · United Center · Final PHI 102 – CHI 109
← NBA / Dec 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI28243317102
CHI30193228109
Team box
PHI·CHI
35-93
field goals
38-86
11-39
3-pointers
14-41
21-24
free throws
19-25
46
rebounds
52
22
assists
31
9
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Joel EmbiidPHI323151
Tyrese MaxeyPHI402758
Paul GeorgePHI3515115
Tre JonesCHI241562
Zach CollinsCHI191551
Coby WhiteCHI291376

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +11
PHI +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 11 · PHI 11lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 44%, CHI 56% · Updated Dec 26, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 0.9
Expected score
CHI 119.7 – 118.8 PHI
Expected total
238.4
76ersThe matchupBulls
+129Our fair odds−129
118.8Expected points119.7
−0.25Power rating−0.22
116.6Points / game119.7
115.4Allowed / game123.0
45.0FG%47.8
35.93P%36.6
45.1Rebounds / game45.2
16−12Season record14−15
6−4Last 105−5
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Trendon WatfordOutEmanuel Miller · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa Essengue · Trentyn Flowers

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHI chance
Our model fair43.8%56.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+12944%————
CHIChicago Bulls−12956%————
SpreadCHI by 0.9
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.9our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.4
Over238.4our total————
Under238.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 0.9 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%
← PHI wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more43%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more29%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.4 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHI
Dec 23, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at ATL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 26, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHIDominick Barlow · n/a; illnessProbable
PHIQuentin Grimes · n/a; illnessProbable
PHIVJ Edgecombe · n/a; illnessProbable
Chicago Bulls
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · g league - two-wayOut
CHIPatrick Williams · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
PHI·CHI
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
116.6
points / game
119.7
115.4
points allowed / game
123.0
16−12
season record
14−15
9−8
home record
7−6
7−4
away record
7−9
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
5−5
45.0
FG%
47.8
35.9
3P%
36.6
45.1
rebounds / game
45.2
24.9
assists / game
29.4
14.3
turnovers / game
15.1
48.0
points in paint / game
55.4

Rating Trend

PHI · CHI · 58 days
Philadelphia 76ersChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 6−4
Nov 4, 2025at CHICHI 113 − 111
Apr 13, 2025at PHICHI 122 − 102
Feb 24, 2025at PHICHI 142 − 110
Jan 25, 2025at CHIPHI 109 − 97
Dec 8, 2024at CHIPHI 108 − 100
Jan 2, 2024at PHIPHI 110 − 97
Dec 30, 2023at CHICHI 105 − 92
Dec 18, 2023at PHICHI 108 − 104
Mar 22, 2023at CHIPHI 116 − 91
Mar 20, 2023at PHICHI 109 − 105

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 23, 2025vs BKN106 − 114L
Dec 20, 2025vs DAL121 − 114W
Dec 19, 2025at NY116 − 107W
Dec 14, 2025at ATL117 − 120L
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH121 − 102W
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL134 − 142L

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Dec 23, 2025at ATL126 − 123W
Dec 21, 2025at ATL152 − 150W
Dec 19, 2025at CLE136 − 125W
Dec 17, 2025vs CLE127 − 111W
Dec 14, 2025vs NO104 − 114L
Dec 12, 2025at CHA129 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs GS91 − 123L
Dec 5, 2025vs IND105 − 120L
Dec 3, 2025vs BKN103 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025at ORL120 − 125L