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Mavericks at Warriors

NBA · Thursday, Dec 25 · 4:17 PM CT · Chase Center · Final DAL 116 – GS 126
← NBA / Dec 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL28303127116
GS40312926126
Team box
DAL·GS
49-89
field goals
44-99
4-14
3-pointers
14-50
14-21
free throws
24-26
41
rebounds
49
18
assists
33
11
turnovers
11
72
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL362765
Brandon WilliamsDAL302633
Stephen CurryGS332334
De'Anthony MeltonGS241633
Jimmy Butler IIIGS321499
P.J. WashingtonDAL3414102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 17 · DAL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 33%, GS 67% · Updated Dec 25, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 6.7
Expected score
GS 115.4 – 108.7 DAL
Expected total
224.1
MavericksThe matchupWarriors
+204Our fair odds−204
108.7Expected points115.4
−0.20Power rating+0.29
113.6Points / game114.2
117.4Allowed / game112.3
46.6FG%45.2
33.23P%36.3
44.5Rebounds / game43.8
12−19Season record15−15
6−4Last 105−5
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Miles Kelly
Moussa CisseOutLJ Cryer · Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · GS chance
Our model fair32.9%67.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+20433%————
GSGolden State Warriors−20467%————
SpreadGS by 6.7
DALDallas Mavericks+6.7our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−6.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.7 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%
← DAL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more58%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more43%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·GS
Dec 23, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Dec 22, 2025 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 25, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut
Golden State Warriors
GSLJ Cryer · left low back; strainOut
GSSeth Curry · left glute; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
DAL·GS
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
113.6
points / game
114.2
117.4
points allowed / game
112.3
12−19
season record
15−15
9−9
home record
9−4
3−10
away record
6−11
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
46.6
FG%
45.2
33.2
3P%
36.3
44.5
rebounds / game
43.8
25.3
assists / game
27.8
15.5
turnovers / game
16.2
52.3
points in paint / game
42.0

Rating Trend

DAL · GS · 57 days
Dallas MavericksGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Feb 23, 2025at GSGS 126 − 102
Feb 12, 2025at DALDAL 111 − 107
Dec 15, 2024at GSDAL 143 − 133
Nov 12, 2024at GSGS 120 − 117
Apr 5, 2024at DALDAL 108 − 106
Apr 2, 2024at GSGS 104 − 100
Mar 13, 2024at DALDAL 109 − 99
Dec 30, 2023at GSDAL 132 − 122
Mar 22, 2023at DALGS 127 − 125
Feb 4, 2023at GSGS 119 − 113

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 23, 2025vs DEN131 − 130W
Dec 22, 2025at NO113 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W
Dec 5, 2025at OKC111 − 132L
Dec 3, 2025vs MIA118 − 108W
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W