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Pistons at Mavericks

NBA · Thursday, Dec 18 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final DET 114 – DAL 116
← NBA / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DET302722314114
DAL353125196116
Team box
DET·DAL
47-122
field goals
40-89
6-33
3-pointers
5-27
14-20
free throws
31-36
62
rebounds
51
26
assists
22
12
turnovers
17
70
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET4529109
Cooper FlaggDAL4023104
Jalen DurenDET3417131
Naji MarshallDAL331631
Anthony DavisDAL3715142
Isaiah StewartDET311481

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +18
DET +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DAL 18 · DET 4lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 57%, DAL 43% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 2.6
Expected score
DET 116.4 – 113.8 DAL
Expected total
230.2
PistonsThe matchupMavericks
−134Our fair odds+134
116.4Expected points113.8
+0.33Power rating−0.19
119.3Points / game112.9
113.0Allowed / game116.8
48.7FG%46.1
35.63P%34.1
46.2Rebounds / game44.2
21−5Season record10−17
7−3Last 105−5
Bobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.OutDante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · DAL chance
Our model fair57.2%42.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−13457%————
DALDallas Mavericks+13443%————
SpreadDET by 2.6
DETDetroit Pistons−2.6our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.2
Over230.2our total————
Under230.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 2.6 expected
Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← DET wins byDAL wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more47%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more32%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.2 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·DAL
Dec 15, 2025 at BOS
last game
Dec 15, 2025 at UTAH
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 18, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; contusion; illnessQuestionable
DALBrandon Williams · right achilles;Questionable
DALD'Angelo Russell · illness; illnessQuestionable
DALNaji Marshall · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
DET·DAL
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
119.3
points / game
112.9
113.0
points allowed / game
116.8
21−5
season record
10−17
12−2
home record
7−9
9−3
away record
3−8
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
48.7
FG%
46.1
35.6
3P%
34.1
46.2
rebounds / game
44.2
26.2
assists / game
25.0
15.8
turnovers / game
15.5
57.1
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

DET · DAL · 51 days
Detroit PistonsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 5−4
Nov 1, 2025at DETDET 122 − 110
Mar 21, 2025at DALDAL 123 − 117
Jan 31, 2025at DETDET 117 − 102
Apr 12, 2024at DALDET 107 − 89
Mar 9, 2024at DETDAL 142 − 124
Jan 30, 2023at DALDAL 111 − 105
Dec 1, 2022at DETDET 131 − 125
Apr 6, 2022at DETDAL 131 − 113
Feb 8, 2022at DALDAL 116 − 86

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Dec 15, 2025at BOS112 − 105W
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W
Dec 3, 2025at MIL109 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025vs ATL99 − 98W
Nov 29, 2025at MIA138 − 135W
Nov 28, 2025vs ORL109 − 112L
Nov 26, 2025at BOS114 − 117L
Nov 24, 2025at IND122 − 117W

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W
Dec 5, 2025at OKC111 − 132L
Dec 3, 2025vs MIA118 − 108W
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W
Nov 28, 2025at LAL119 − 129L
Nov 24, 2025at MIA102 − 106L
Nov 22, 2025vs MEM96 − 102L