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Mavericks at Jazz

NBA · Monday, Dec 15 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final DAL 133 – UTAH 140
← NBA / Dec 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DAL433224304133
UTAH3734213711140
Team box
DAL·UTAH
48-98
field goals
50-97
9-27
3-pointers
13-36
28-41
free throws
27-33
54
rebounds
47
24
assists
33
15
turnovers
13
64
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL424276
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH413756
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH4033165
P.J. WashingtonDAL3925140
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH382591
Naji MarshallDAL361531

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +10
DAL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: UTAH 10 · DAL 10lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 61%, UTAH 39% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 5.4
Expected score
DAL 121.7 – 116.3 UTAH
Expected total
238.0
MavericksThe matchupJazz
−156Our fair odds+156
121.7Expected points116.3
−0.17Power rating−0.85
112.1Points / game118.1
115.9Allowed / game125.8
46.0FG%45.5
34.23P%34.4
43.8Rebounds / game45.6
10−16Season record9−15
6−4Last 104−6
D'Angelo Russell · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOutElijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Jusuf Nurkic
Walker Kessler

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair61.0%39.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks−15661%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+15639%————
SpreadDAL by 5.4
DALDallas Mavericks−5.4our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.0
Over238.0our total————
Under238.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 5.4 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byUTAH wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more55%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more39%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.0 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Utah Jazz
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·UTAH
Dec 12, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Dec 12, 2025 at MEM
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 15, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALD'Angelo Russell · illness; illnessOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; contusionQuestionable
DALBrandon Williams · right achilles; sorenessQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · restOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
DAL·UTAH
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.85
112.1
points / game
118.1
115.9
points allowed / game
125.8
10−16
season record
9−15
7−9
home record
6−7
3−7
away record
3−8
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
46.0
FG%
45.5
34.2
3P%
34.4
43.8
rebounds / game
45.6
25.1
assists / game
29.7
15.5
turnovers / game
16.4
49.6
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

DAL · UTAH · 48 days
Dallas MavericksUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 3−7
Nov 30, 2024at UTAHDAL 106 − 94
Nov 14, 2024at UTAHUTAH 115 − 113
Oct 28, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 102
Mar 25, 2024at UTAHDAL 115 − 105
Mar 21, 2024at DALDAL 113 − 97
Jan 1, 2024at UTAHUTAH 127 − 90
Dec 6, 2023at DALDAL 147 − 97
Mar 7, 2023at DALDAL 120 − 116
Feb 6, 2023at UTAHDAL 124 − 111
Jan 28, 2023at UTAHUTAH 108 − 100

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W
Dec 5, 2025at OKC111 − 132L
Dec 3, 2025vs MIA118 − 108W
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W
Nov 28, 2025at LAL119 − 129L
Nov 24, 2025at MIA102 − 106L
Nov 22, 2025vs MEM96 − 102L
Nov 21, 2025vs NO118 − 115W

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 12, 2025at MEM130 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 131L
Dec 5, 2025at NY112 − 146L
Dec 4, 2025at BKN123 − 110W
Dec 1, 2025vs HOU133 − 125W
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU101 − 129L
Nov 28, 2025vs SAC128 − 119W
Nov 24, 2025at GS117 − 134L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAL106 − 108L
Nov 21, 2025vs OKC112 − 144L