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Nuggets at Mavericks

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final DEN 130 – DAL 131
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN27294727130
DAL41253728131
Team box
DEN·DAL
50-87
field goals
53-93
20-41
3-pointers
11-27
10-10
free throws
14-15
34
rebounds
36
39
assists
34
15
turnovers
11
50
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL403399
Jamal MurrayDEN3731714
Anthony DavisDAL363194
Nikola JokicDEN3629714
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN292321
Naji MarshallDAL321543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +21
DEN +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 21 · DEN 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 65%, DAL 35% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 5.4
Expected score
DEN 120.5 – 115.0 DAL
Expected total
235.5
NuggetsThe matchupMavericks
−186Our fair odds+186
120.5Expected points115.0
+0.66Power rating−0.20
125.1Points / game113.0
116.0Allowed / game116.9
51.4FG%46.3
40.03P%32.9
44.4Rebounds / game44.8
21−7Season record11−19
8−2Last 106−4
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
Tamar BatesOut (3 each)Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · DAL chance
Our model fair65.1%34.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−18665%————
DALDallas Mavericks+18635%————
SpreadDEN by 5.4
DENDenver Nuggets−5.4our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.5
Over235.5our total————
Under235.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 5.4 expected
Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%
← DEN wins byDAL wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more55%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more39%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.5 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GRyan Nembhardstarted
GJaden Hardystarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·DAL
Dec 22, 2025 vs UTAH
last game
Dec 22, 2025 at NO
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · illness; illnessProbable
DENPeyton Watson · right trunk; contusionProbable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDwight Powell · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALKlay Thompson · left knee; sorenessDoubtful
DALMax Christie · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DALP.J. Washington · right midfoot; sorenessQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayProbable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
DEN·DAL
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
125.1
points / game
113.0
116.0
points allowed / game
116.9
21−7
season record
11−19
9−5
home record
8−9
12−2
away record
3−10
W1
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
6−4
51.4
FG%
46.3
40.0
3P%
32.9
44.4
rebounds / game
44.8
29.5
assists / game
25.0
13.2
turnovers / game
15.7
52.4
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

DEN · DAL · 56 days
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 4−6
Dec 1, 2025at DENDAL 131 − 121
Jan 14, 2025at DALDEN 118 − 99
Jan 12, 2025at DALDEN 112 − 101
Nov 22, 2024at DENDAL 123 − 120
Nov 10, 2024at DENDEN 122 − 120
Mar 17, 2024at DALDAL 107 − 105
Dec 18, 2023at DENDEN 130 − 104
Nov 3, 2023at DENDEN 125 − 114
Feb 15, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 109
Dec 6, 2022at DENDAL 116 − 115

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 22, 2025at NO113 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W
Dec 5, 2025at OKC111 − 132L
Dec 3, 2025vs MIA118 − 108W
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W